Inflation seems to be all over the globe, and US Treasury rates have steadily climbed this year as a result. Commodity related stocks also climbed as a result of the inflation despite the global slowdown.
Now there seems to be a change brewing. These two charts may be revealing the early signs that rates have peaked and commodities stocks are finally ready to correct lower reflecting a peak in commodity prices and the world wide economic slow down.
I'm really getting into this new chart style. This is a pretty bullish looking chart of the US Dollar. The only thing is, if rates are headed back down, how much longer will the US Dollar rally? While the media is focused on inflation, maybe the real story is the economic slow down. Perhaps the dollar is headed higher because foreign rates are finally getting ready to head lower in sync with US rates.
Yesterday I mentioned that this chart was looking like it was going to break out. Today, that's what it did on high volume. It is really late to be shorting though, so caution is called for.
The pieces are fitting together. Rates may have peaked, materials stocks may be headed lower, and oil may have topped out.
