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Let us suppose a fantasy world in which we could sit down in a game of chance with a select group of opponents.  The other players had the following characteristics:

• They are drawn randomly from the population.  If you think you are smart, they are less smart.
• They have little education in the relevant subject.  You have an advanced degree, and they either did not take or do not remember Course 101.
• The opponents have no theoretical or conceptual model -- and probably do not understand what that means.
• The opponents are willing to make big bets on their opinions.

Please keep the scenario in mind.

Ritholtz Bets on the Masses

Over at The Big Picture Barry Ritholtz offers the rather astounding suggestion that when all of the experts in a field agree, it is time to take the other side.  Here is a key quote:

As someone who has been skeptical about the artificially low inflation and unemployment rates for quite sometime now, the public's reaction makes a whole lot of sense. If we believe the negative sentiment of the American people, then its likely that Inflation has been much more pervasive than reported by either the top line or the core.  And the same thinking likely applies to the low unemployment rate. If we judge by sentiment, perhaps its not as low as advertised.