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The Wagner Daily - July 29, 2008
By: Deron Wagner   Tuesday, July 29, 2008 8:22 AM
Sectors: ETFs , Finance

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The stock market got off to an ugly start this week, as the major indices swiftly erased the gains of last Friday's bounce, and quite a bit more. Tumbling well below last week's lows, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9% and 2.1% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite similarly lost 2.0%, but held on to support of its July 22 low. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost 2.0%, as the S&P Midcap 400 declined 1.2%. All the main stock market indexes closed at or near their worst levels of the day, positioning stocks for a bit of downward pressure on today's open.

The possible silver lining of yesterday's storm clouds is that lighter volume accompanied the sharp losses. Total volume in the NYSE fell 10%, while volume in the Nasdaq limped in 3% below the previous day's level. When stocks are trying to reverse from a sharp downtrend, it's positive when volume dries up on the "down" days. This tells us that institutions, which are responsible for more than half of the market's activity on an average day, have not been rushing for the exit doors whenever stocks pull back. It's important to note that turnover also declined last Thursday, when the major indices lost a similar percentage to yesterday. The negative, however, is that market internals were nasty. In both the NYSE and Nasdaq, declining volume exceeded advancing volume by a margin of approximately 5 to 1. The selling was broad-based, not confined to just a few industry sectors.

Since printing their intermediate-term lows on July 15, the major indices have been attempting to turn their counter-trend bounces into legitimate trend reversals. Since the bullish reversal that occurred mid-month, the small-cap Russell 2000 has unequivocally led the pack higher. From their July 15 intraday lows to their July 23 intraday peaks, the S&P 500 gained 7.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 8.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite 8.4%. There were pretty respectable gains in a short period of time. But by comparison, the Russell 2000 zoomed 12.2% higher during the same period. It was also the only index to rally enough to test resistance of its 50-day MA (though it has since fallen back below it). Over the past three days, the Russell 2000 has retraced some of its gains, along with the rest of the major indices, but its current chart pattern now presents a low-risk buy entry into the small-cap index:

Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

Notice how the Russell 2000 has pulled back to support of both its 10-day moving average and 20-day exponential moving average, which have converged right in the vicinity of yesterday's close. The Russell 2000 has also showed relative strength throughout the pullback of the past three days.

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