Oh my, the Dow has risen 450 points or so over the span of a few short days.
The bear market is over and the bulls are in control…
STOP!
This is the bear market of 2000 - 2003 all over again in terms of the media,
and others, jumping all over every pivot point in the markets. The factual
technical trend of the market is STILL bearish. As was the case in the previous
bear market every time there was a rally it was dubbed as ‘the end’. Tonight we
have the market circus barker Jim Cramer of CNBC calling the bottom. Saying the
bear market is over. This from the man who last year failed to acknowledge the
problems and continued to urge his viewers to buy stocks as the fundamentals of
the economy were melting away. As we were calling for big problems ahead back
then Mr. Cramer kept trying to pump the market up and had his viewers losing a
lot of money. So how credible is Jim Cramer? This funny clip can answer that
question…
All major technical indicators still have us in a bear market. And until the
market signals that the bear market has ended then any rally is considered a
‘bear market rally’.
The markets continue to remain under incredible stresses as the housing
market and the credit implosion have put a halt to credit growth, which is so
necessary for economic growth anymore. The United States has become way too
dependent on credit to fuel growth. Without credit the economy seizes, and right
now we can smell the pistons of the US economy burning up as the oil in the
engine is leaking out the bottom. Speaking of oil, I still forecast rising oil
prices for the long term. Periodic pull backs in the price of crude oil
are just that, periodic. The multi year trend of oil remains bullish.
Energy Sector (XLE)
GDP and monthly unemployment figures are on tap for the next two days. Hold
on to your seats, may get wild. This mornings ADP employment data was much
higher suggesting that this months employment figures from the Government will
be "better than expected". However ADP has a history of being very inaccurate
when it comes to tracking the official numbers. I still maintain my previous
projections of unemployment reaching at least 6.4%.
Off the wire tonight:
JULY MONSTER EMPLOYMENT INDEX: 157 V 163 M/M (THE READING FOR JULY 2007 WAS
183)
(JP) THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT IS EXPECTED TO NEXT WEEK CUT ITS ASSESSMENT OF
THE ECONOMY TO "WORSENING" FROM "POSSIBLY AT A TURNING POINT" - JAPANESE PRESS
(AU) AUSTRALIA RETAIL SALES FALL MOST IN SIX YEARS
GENERAL MOTORS WILL CUT 5,100 JOBS AT US & CANADIAN
PLANTS
