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S&P Picks and Pans: Wyeth, Comcast, Garmin, Corning, Loews
By: iStockAnalyst   Thursday, July 31, 2008 10:56 AM
Symbols: CNA, GLW, GRMN, WYE
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S&P DOWNGRADES OPINION ON WYETH SHARES TO HOLD FROM BUY (WYE; 40.06):

WYE and Elan (ELN; 21.90) release mixed Phase II data on bapineuzumab for Alzheimer's. The drug showed efficacy in a genetic sub-set of patients who do not carry Alzheimer's prone [APOE4] genes. But b-mab did not help APOE4 patients, with brain swelling noted in some. We were disappointed by dose response data. Given uncertainties with b-mab, which we saw as WYE's key R&D drug, we now do not expect WYE to outperform peers over the next 5 years. We are cutting our target price by $7 to $45, a peer-level p-e of 12.7 times our 2008 EPS estimate. WYE's dividend yields 2.8%. -H. Saftlas

S&P MAINTAINS SELL OPINION ON CLASS A SHARES OF COMCAST (CMCSA; 20.35):

Shares are up today after, in our view, mixed unit growth in seasonally slow second quarter and an upbeat affirmation of 2008 guidance. We see execution on digital phone [upon now-completed exit of circuit-switched platform] and early gains in the enterprise market. But we note overriding near-term risk factor on more competition and a slowing economy. On its call, CMCSA said it opposes the recent adverse FCC ruling on its network management practices [somewhat ominous in our view], but signaled openness to consumption-based Internet billing. Our target price is $18, on enterprise value-to-EBITDA. -T. Amobi-CPA,CFA

S&P MAINTAINS STRONG BUY OPINION ON CORNING SHARES (GLW) 20.44]:

GLW spent much time on its second quarter call justifying its view that the LCD glass market [nearly 50% of 2008 sales] remains sound despite a slowing U.S. economy and increased supply. While we expect recent 35% growth of LCD TVs in the U.S. to slow in second half, we believe GLW's fundamentals are intact as third quarter revenue guidance reflects a weaker yen. Supported by growth in telecom and joint venture income, we raise our 2008 EPS estimate by $0.12 to $1.96 [with a $0.15 benefit from low taxes] and our 2009 by $0.11 to $2.01. However, on macro-risks, we trim our p-e-based 12-month price by $2 to $28. -T. Rosenbluth

S&P MAINTAINS STRONG BUY RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF GARMIN LTD. (GRMN; 40.33):

Excluding $0.26 of one-time gains, second quarter EPS of $0.93, vs. $1.00, misses our estimate by $0.17. Auto segment sales growth slowed to 24% despite strong advances in units sold and in marketshare. GRMN says its Nuvifone launch is delayed until mid-2009, slower than our fourth quarter 2008 expectations. Operating margin fell 638 bps to 26.2%. Following today's results, we believe a stretched consumer will reduce GRMN's near-term revenue growth potential, though we still believe in its longer-term prospects once cyclical factors abate. We will provide an update after the company's conference call. -J. Peters-CFA

S&P UPGRADES OPINION ON SHARES OF LOEWS TO BUY FROM HOLD (L; 44.45):

Following L's second quarter results, we believe fundamentals are improving at its energy subsidiaries, including 50%-owned Diamond Offshore (DO; 117.00), 70%-owned Boardwalk Pipelines, and fully-owned HighMount. Although its principal subsidiary CNA Financial (CNA; 26.00) may cause earnings volatility this year, we think the worst is over for CNA and think P&C the operating environment should improve in 2009. We believe L shares are attractively valued at about 9 times our 2009 EPS estimate. Our target price of $54 is based on a p-e of 10.6 times our 2009 estimate, in-line with historical multiples. -B. Howlett

S&P KEEPS NEGATIVE OUTLOOK ON INVESTMENT BANKING & BROKERAGE SUB-INDUSTRY:

As we expected, The Federal Reserve announces it will extend the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and Term Securities Lending Facility through January 30, 2009. It is also going to auction options for primary dealers to borrow Treasury securities from the TSLF, for exercise in advance of periods with elevated stress, such as quarter-end, using high-quality, agency and government-backed collateral. We view these moves as positives for the investment banks, as they improve industry liquidity, but balance sheet troubles and economic headwinds remain. -M. Albrechttracking

Story Source: Business Week


 

 
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