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Bookkeeping: Initiating Flowserve Position
By: TraderMark   Thursday, July 31, 2008 1:37 PM
Sectors: Construction , Industrial Products
Symbols: FLR, FLS, FWLT, JEC
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The market continues to not reward these global growth companies for stellar earnings. As I wrote this AM, Flowserve (FLS) posted some fantastic earnings and a huge guide up on 2008 estimates (Flowserve Mighty Impressive Earnings)

After gapping up to the mid $140s, the stock is back down to $137s... to completely fill the gap it would need to go down to $135, but I'm willing to put a stake in the ground here. Beginning with a 1.3% position and willing to build on pullbacks. $115-$120 would be a nice area as this is where the stock has bottomed twice in the past month. Considering they just raised 2008 estimates by $1.25 it wouldn't make much sense to see such a fall, but what has been making sense of late. Throw a conservative 15 P/E ratio (for 100% earnings growth) on this extra $1.25 of 2008 earnings and you have +$20 in stock price. Instead we get +$3. I guess "it's all priced in"

I have to tell you this weakness in the global infrastructure names is mind boggling to me - Fluor (FLR), Jacobs Engineering (JEC), and Foster Wheeler (FWLT) are acting as if the world will end as oil falls to $120 (or $100). If you read the press releases on the type of contracts these names are putting out on a weekly basis it's an embarrassment of riches (wind, gas, petroleum, solar - they're everywhere), but the hedge fund computers prefer banks I suppose.

Flowserve is not the exact same type of company but off the same theme - yes the globe will slow but those with money (petrodollars and huge trade surplus) will continue their advancement.
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