A number of readers wrote to ask what the heck I meant,
in my rhapsodic reaction to MBIA’s second quarter earnings report
,
when I referred to MBIA’s “adjusted book value” of $39.63 per share.
Here’s a shortish answer: MBIA’s adjusted book value is its reported
book value of $16.67 per share, with a number of items that aren’t part
of the company’s book value yet, but almost certainly will be in the
future, added back in order to provide a more appropriate, accurate
starting point for determining the company’s intrinsic value. The
add-backs include:
Cumlative mark-to-market losses on securites, less cumulative impairment ($19.78 per share).
Before the cussed FAS 157 took effect, this wouldn’t likely be a big
number. But it is. Every quarter, MBIA has to mark the value of its
financial assets and liabilities—everything from fixed-income
securities to derivatives contracts—to their market prices at the end
of the quarter. From an economic standpoint, the logic of FAS 157 is
iffy. In most cases, remember, MBIA intends to hold its financial
investments to maturity; variation in their prices between now and then
is irrelevant. But in the near-term, the financial markets have seized
up, which means the value of many of the company’s securities (and
liabilities) has fallen for reasons unrelated to their intrinsic credit
quality or fundamental outlook. As the markets eventually recover, MBI
will reverse the negative marks and record net gains. In the meantime,
it makes sense to add back the marks the company has taken (net of any
cumulative impairments booked) to reflect the fact that the company is
a long-term holder, and won’t actually realize the “losses” it says it
has taken.
Deferred premium revenue ($6.06).
This is what its sounds like. I’ll spare you the intricacies of
insurance accounting, but remember that a cardinal principal of
accounting is that revenues and expenses should be recognized in the
period they’re incurred. In insurance, that’s not always so easy. When
MBIA insures a municipal bond, for instance, it receives a single,
lump-sum payment at the time of the bond’s issuance in return for
credit protection that will last over the life of the bond, which could
be 30 years or more. So MBIA doesn’t recognize all that cash payment as
revenue all at once. Rather, most of it goes into a liability account
called Deferred Premium. The company then recognizes the revenue
gradually, over the life of the bond. The point here is that MBIA
already has the cash premiums in hand. The only thing preventing those
premiums from being revenue (and contributing to earnings) is the
passage of time.
Present value of installment premium ($6.97). By
the terms of most of MBIA’s CDO guarantees, the insured funds coverage
via annual premium payments that will last over the life of the
security—which can last decades. In virtually every case, these
agreements are not cancellable by the insured. The present value of the
installment premium is simply net present value of the premiums the
company knows it will receive over the coming 30 or so years.
Asset/liability product adjustment ($6.18) In
its asset management business, MBIA has sold guaranteed investment
contracts to clients that promise a certain return over a certain
period of time. In order to assure its GIC buyers that it will actually
be around to satisfy the contracts it has written, MBIA has posted
collateral with the buyers. That collateral will revert to MBIA once it
makes good on its GICs.
Again, by current accounting rules, none
of this counts in MBIA’s shareholders equity now, but will eventually.
Tally it all up and add it to current stated book of $16.67, and you
get to $39.63, by MBIA’s calculation. The question, then, becomes what
multiple to book value should MBIA’s stock trade at? But with the stock
trading at just 28% of adjusted book value now, that’s a discussion we
can have another day.