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Another Bottom Call on Financials - This Time Even Before the Event Happens
By: TraderMark   Friday, August 22, 2008 3:35 PM
Sectors: Consumer Staples , Finance
Symbols: BSC, C, FNM, FRE, MDP, WTNY
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These used car salesmen on Wall Street just never let up - this time they are calling for a bottom in financials even before the watershed moment arrives. Usually they at least wait for the event to happen before calling for the bottom - remember just weeks ago we had the bottom in because Merrill Lynch sold it's junk for 22 cents on the dollar, clearly creating a market clearing price for said junk - meaning we now could "price" everything and we're good from here (Jul 29: The Bottom is in Financials - Version 23,472) So now I guess this is "The Bottom is Financials - Version 23,473" Somewhere in the 10,000 range was the Bear Stearns bottom. Somewhere in the 5000 range was the "smart money overseas is buying Citigroup, so should you" etc etc.
  • The eventual fates of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—along with Wall Street titan Lehman Brothers—could prove to be a watershed in the financial crisis and help restore confidence in the stock market, analysts say.
  • The immediate impact of a collapse of any of the firms would likely create panic selling on Wall Street, these analysts believe. Yet it also could help convince investors that the worst had finally passed for the battered banking and housing markets, helping to bring a recovery in stocks and the economy.
  • "One of the things that this market has been missing is a real panic," says Mike Larson, market analyst at Weiss Research's Money and Markets investment newsletter. "If we were to see an actual failure, a nationalization, some kind of take-under deal ... if we were to see something like that and we were to get some panic in the short term, in the long term that would be helpful to clear out those sellers that are left." (yes there was no panic in January 08 or March 08 or June 08)
  • The seemingly inevitable move by the federal government to rescue Fannie-Freddie initially would shake the market. But once the dust clears and Fannie and Freddie can get back to lending again, that would likely be a catalyst to send the market higher. Combine that with a possible takeover of Lehman Brothers, which also could hurt shareholders, there would be greater clarity on Wall Street.
  • "I suspect that this offers a tremendous buying opportunity for the markets," Michael Browne, portfolio manager for Sofaer Global Research, said on CNBC.
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