In a way it seems like a long time ago. It was the summer of 1982 and the latest issue of Business Week magazine arrived in my mail box.
There on the cover was the lead story, complete with some scary illustrations. In bold, big words the title read, "The Death of the Stock Market." I don't remember which writer penned that story, but at the time it made some sense to me and millions of readers.
Ronald Reagan had been in office over a year at that point, the economy was dismal and the stock market had been in a bearish mode for 16 years. That's right, 16 years of mostly down or sideways movement. There were very little signs that this was about to change in a big and unbelievable way.
As I look back now I realize that headline was perhaps the beginning of the most ebullient, exuberant and long-lasting stock market bull market that the United States has ever seen. From 1982 through the year 2000 the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared from around 750 to over 11,000.
The numbers for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were equally as impressive. It all started with a very pessimistic mood and a shocking headline.
Right now the same mood seems to be pervasive when it comes to gold and silver mining stocks. Every week I read some fundamental or technical analysis telling us that the entire sector is in a funk and will stay there for quite awhile.
GDX seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index. It recently broke the 52-week low that had been in place since last August.
Gold companies like Barrick (NYSE:ABX) and Yamana (NYSE:AUY) recently either hit new 52-week lows or matched the ones in place. Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) and Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC), while not breaking down to their annual lows were hammered hard as well.
For those of us who have believed in the potential for silver the story has also been frightful. Look at the 1-year chart below for Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) which in my book is the bellwether for the silver sector.
Now some of you might be wondering why I'd write such a dire story with such a horrible title. I'll let you in on a secret. I'm hoping my headline will be the beginning of the next big leg upward in this amazing bull market in gold and silver stocks that began around 2001 and is overdue for a bit of a rest.
That legendary stock market bull run from 1982 through 2000 lasted for eighteen amazing years. The gold and silver bull has only been "running" for around seven years.
The classic ending of a bull market is when everyone and their lawn maintenance people think it will last forever and shoe-shine boys are giving hot stock tips (remember the dot-coms and the "new economy" mania at the end of the 90's?).