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August Performance of Major Retailers; Looking Towards the Future
By: Analytical Wealth   Sunday, September 07, 2008 1:00 PM
Symbols: ARO, BKE, HOTT, JCP, JWN, LTD, MCS
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Here is a quick rundown of the performance of various leading retailers during the month of August:  

Clothing retailers
Aeropostale (13%) and Buckle (22.4%) reported solid numbers, while Abercrombie (-11%), Hot Topic (-2.7%), Limited Brands (-7%) all showed declines. In general all clothing retailers showed YoY declines, making the performance of Aeropostale and Buckle even more exceptional.  

Department stores
did poorly all around: with J.C. Penney (-4.9%), Kohl's (-5.8%), Dillard's (-7%), all showing declines.  

Discounters fared okay with Wal-Mart showing a 3% YoY increase in sales and Family Dollar showing an increase of 3.6%; however Wal-Mart's heavy bias towards grocery sales and pharmacy products suggests that their sales numbers were helped by inflationary pressures.  

Target
reported a YoY sales decline of -2.1%; I suspect that their recent poor results are a function of Target positioning itself as a trendy retailer as opposed to a low price leader, coupled with their product offerings leaning towards home furnishings, fashion, and other discretionary items. This puts them in the unfortunate position of not being the retailer you look to for cheap groceries or household necessities, in addition to being a retailer many consumers are cutting back on their spending with.  

Still the fact that Target has higher income customers than Wal-Mart or Family Dollar should position them for a solid recovery over the medium to long-term, let's not forget that the "retail slumming" effect means that the latter two retailers currently have customers that are shopping there out of need not out of choice. It stands to reason that some of their new customers are going to return to the places they used to shop once things recover.  

Warehouse Stores also showed positive results with B.J.'s and Costco reporting increases of 7.7% and 6% respectively; however their sales (like Wal-Mart’s) were undoubtedly helped by grocery inflation. The performance of the warehouse stores lends credence to theory of consumers cutting back on discretionary items, and hunting for bargains on household necessities, groceries, etc.  

Luxury Retailers weren't able to escape the effects of the economic downturn, with Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom and Saks reporting declines of -0.5%, -7.9% and -5.9%. I suspect (as I did before) that the declines at the luxury retailers are more due to the loss of their "poseur" or "faux housing wealth effect" customers, more than it's an indication of people in the top 5-10% truly cutting back on their spending.
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