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Prognosis Uncertain
By: Random Roger   Monday, September 08, 2008 2:19 AM
Sectors: Computer and Technology
Symbols: ANSW, DPZ
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The bailout answers some questions and raises some other questions.

The yen is getting hit against everything as it looks like it's back into the carry trade pool; more comfort taking risk.

New Zealand, Japan, Korea and Australia are all up meaningfully. SPX futures appear to be much higher (although Martin Soong on CNBC Asia has made two references to some indicator showing the US market as indicated lower).

Treasury yields are up a lot while gold is up a little. Oil is up but that might be more about Ike than the bailout.

In the post from earlier today I said I thought there would be a pop of some sort in equities. We have it right now, but who knows how long it will last.

Both Steve Forbes and Andy Xie said that this isn't resolved until we know what the gubment is going to do next with these. There was one comment about needing to inject $300 billion to give it a decent capital ratio versus about $5 trillion in debt.

Where does that money come from? Doesn't this have to be inflationary? If it is inflationary then how do we reconcile that with the asset deflation? What about that part of the story about the treasury working with smaller banks with "significant exposure" to Frannie paper? How much will that cost?

Slightly bigger picture the bailout has come about because of a massive failure of how the US does business. The failure as been unfolding for months now, this is the latest but unlikely the last news.

Maybe there is no negative domino effect coming but I'm not sure how that is possible.

 

 
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