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WSJ: Multinationals in U.S. May See Profit Fall
By: TraderMark   Monday, September 08, 2008 2:33 AM
Sectors: Computer and Technology
Symbols: HPQ, MAT
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This is something I've been highlighting for quite a while, as the offset to the rejoicing of the "stronger dollar" - throughout the winter I was showing how multinationals were goosing earnings (revenue) not through organic growth but in large part just through a weak U.S. dollar. Now, we are only back to levels on the dollar seen in the spring and it's been a nearly decade bear market so it's all relative. But when your "14% growth" is "9% currency" and "5% reality" - it is going to look ugly for some of these companies once the tailwind goes away. The ability to "surprise" to the upside is going to be much more difficult in the coming quarters if the dollar stays where it is, or strengthens further.

Let me reiterate the dollar is still very weak historically so this is, so far, simply a correction (upward) in a long term downtrend. In theory doing massive bailouts should hurt the dollar, but theory seems to no longer matter in any markets nowadays. All that matters is where the money flow is going so academic studies mean little - if a herd of hedge funds runs into the US dollar - than 100 years of history means nothing. The dollar will go up. Even as we bailout our institutions. As I keep saying, truly historic times. (please note - the dollar is going up versus most developed countries currencies - it is still going sideways or in fact weakening against the developing countries currencies - which is ironic considering everyone says we need to flee those areas and run back to the safety of the US. The currencies say otherwise)
  • Multinational companies in the U.S. that are accustomed to the tailwind of a weakening dollar are about to find out what it is like to sail in currency doldrums. For much of the past six years, and particularly in the past two quarters, the dollar's infirmity has helped pump up the results of U.S. companies with operations abroad. That is because revenues earned in other currencies have converted back into more dollars. Against the euro, for instance, the dollar has lost ground compared with a year earlier for eight quarters in a row.

  • Now the currency tides are shifting. That means what had been a bonus for companies is rapidly turning into a burden, producing a jolt for investors. Some of the foreign sales volumes that would have translated better into dollars "will go from a major tailwind to no wind whatsoever, to potentially a headwind," says Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup.

  • A glance at recent earnings reports shows the extent of the boost.

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