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Defensive Stocks For Potential Recession
By: iStockAnalyst   Friday, November 07, 2008 6:08 AM
Symbols: BUD, CLX, ED, KMB, KO, PEP, PG, TEG
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(By Tim - iStockAnalyst Writer) I write this article with two premises in mind. First, it appears that the economy is headed for a period of very low, or no growth. i.e. a recession. The second premise is that we still want to be invested in U.S. stocks. In my opinion the stock market has already gone a long way to discounting a pretty severe recession, but market actions over the last few days suggest many do not share my belief. With these two criteria in mind, what types of stocks look attractive now?

The first sector that can do well in slow economic times is consumer staples. These are your food, drug and beverage companies. People still need to eat, take their medicine and will probably drink more to drown their worries. Many of these companies will actually increase their profitability as commodity prices continue to fall and they are able to hang on to recent price increases due to the previously rising raw material costs. Transport costs will also fall as oil prices continue to decline.

To find some eligible candidates for attractive stocks I cross-referenced the S&P 500 consumer staples sector (42 stocks) with the S&P Dividend Aristocrats-High Yield. The Dividend Aristocrats are stock components of the S&P 500 that have increased their dividend for at least 25 straight years. The High Yield subset is the 50 highest yields of the Aristocrats. This simple screening technique produced a list of 6 stocks:

  • Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. (BUD) Market cap: $46 billion, yield: 2.3%.
  • Clorox Co. (CLX) Market cap: $8.4 billion, yield: 2.9%.
  • Coca-Cola Co. (KO) Market cap: $103 billion, yield 3.3%.
  • Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) Market cap: $24.5 billion, yield: 3.7%.
  • Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Market cap: $88.5 billion, yield: 2.9%.
  • Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) Market cap: $190 billion, yield: 2.4%.

Another sector that I think could have expanding margins and profits is electric utilities. The rapid fall in energy costs should allow these companies to deliver more dollars to the bottom line. Using the same screening technique on the S&P utilities sector (32 stocks) as I did with the consumer staples it gave up only two companies that are also Dividend Aristocrats:

  • Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED) Market cap: $11.9 billion, yield: 5.3%.
  • Integrys Energy Group, Inc. (TEG) Market cap: $3.6 billion, yield: 5.5%.

Here we have a list of stocks that will do OK as long as the Average Joe continues to enjoy his nightly beer or two, give the kids Coke or Pepsi, put diapers on the baby, watch his flat screen TV (purchased with cash out mortgage refinance dollars) and use his refrigerator, washer and dryer. Of course, I highly recommend doing some further research into these companies before investing, but I hope this list give you some ideas for further research.




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