Friday was a milestone in the evolution of the ongoing financial crisis. No, not the employment data, which was execrable (and prompted Goldman to raise their unemployment rate forecast to an eye-watering 8.5%.) In fact, Friday was notable because it was the first time in quite a while that Macro Man can recall being bored at the office.

It seems as if markets have mentally shut down and are content to limp into the end of the year. Liquidity has certainly dried up amongst many of the products that Macro Man trades, and declining volumes in a number of exchange-traded assets also bear testament to a lack of engagement. Moreover, the ever-reliable blog traffic indicator has shown a reasonable decline in eyeballs from the panicky markets of a month ago. As always, that is perhaps explainable by the dearth of quality of the commentary in this space...but nevertheless it would appear to indicate a waning interest in the day-to-day saga of the financial meltdown.

So it was with much elation that Macro Man and other punters greeted Sunday's announcement of a 4 trillion yuan Chinese stimulus package. Hurrah! A return to working on the weekends and wondering where Wellington will open FX rates on Sunday evening (London time.)

The rationale for the package is fairly obvious. Both anecdotal evidence and official data appear to indicate that the Chinese economy has hit something of a brick wall. Smoothed industrial production growth, for example, has hit six-and-a-half year lows. The property sector has also come under the cosh, and the Shanghai composite index is down 65% on the year following a 7% overnight rally.
Strangely, there appears to be quite a difference in opinion of how significant the package actually is. A number of the measures had been previously announced; still others represent the allocation funds that would have been spent anyways. Moreover, only a minority of the funds are coming from the central government, so the source of the remainder of the money is a trifle opaque.

The ultimate impact is also somewhat nebulous. One shop that Macro Man likes on China has left its 2009 growth forecast unchanged at a below-consensus 7.5%.