The $585 billion (RMB4 trillion) stimulus package that China announced Sunday
may or may not help China’s economy. But with investments in low-income housing,
water and energy projects, airports, disaster relief – and $100 billion for new
railroads – over the next two years, this financial package provides oodles of
opportunities for investors.
There is no doubt China needs infrastructure. Now the world’s fourth-largest
economy, China has grown so rapidly that many of its services are stretched
beyond belief. Equally, it is not so certain that the government knows what
infrastructure to build, or that it can be built, without hopeless corruption.
For instance, the Three Gorges Dam became a global watchword for
waste and environmental destruction, while the fancy toll roads built between
major cities are still very underutilized, because the tolls are too high for
all but the rich. In the stimulus package, more than $100 billion is earmarked
for railroads, a seemingly 19th Century priority at the beginning of the 21st.
(As Money Morning reported in a market analysis
story this past summer, General Electric Co. (GE) said it expects its business in China to double to $10 billion a year by
2010 – making that country a key element of the struggling U.S. industrial
giant’s strategy to offset its struggles here in its home market by pursuing
business in faster-growing markets abroad. GE also announced that it would be
providing China with 300 of its most modern locomotives between now and
2010).
Even if the Chinese economy had slowed sufficiently to warrant stimulus,
there was a better way of getting it. For a decade, China has enjoyed unbalanced
growth, with excessive rates of savings and investment and inadequate
consumption. This has resulted in the huge buildup of Chinese foreign exchange
reserves, now more than $1.9 trillion –the largest in the world, both in
relation to the economy, and in real terms.
To rebalance the economy and maintain growth, China actually needs more
domestic consumption. While Bush-style cuts in high-level income taxes would
benefit only the “Chuppies” – China’s newly emergent yuppie class –
there are other taxes that bear heavily on the economy and could usefully be
cut.