Asset allocation is a critical component of investing success. Both
research and academic studies show asset allocation to be single most
significant factor in determining your financial goals. Allocation
influences both the total long-term return and risk of your investment
portfolio. Other factors such as security selection and market timing
account for a very small percentage of your investment returns.
Unfortunately, the most important decision to achieving financial
success is also the least understood.
What is asset allocation? Most people confuse asset allocation with
diversification. They believe it has something to do with making
multiple investments among groups of similar assets. Ask investors to
list the assets in which they would consider investing. Typical answers
include "growth stocks", "bonds", "large caps", and sometimes
"international stocks." But their diversification is limited to
selection within one asset. For example, someone choosing to purchase
technology stocks may invest in five or six companies ? but all within
the technology industry. This reduces risk if one of the companies
should fail, but is useless when the technology industry (or entire
stock market) slumps.
Asset allocation goes beyond diversification to reduce risk across
all type of financial assets (cash, stocks, bonds, commodities, real
estate, and even venture capital or hedge funds). Investments and risk
can be divided further into subcategories of stocks including
large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, value vs. growth, and international vs.
domestic. Similarly, bonds can be divided into subcategories of
short-term, and long-term, tax-free, high yield, convertible, emerging
markets, floating rate, and international vs. domestic. Multiple
combinations allow investors to allocate their portfolios into a number
of asset classes and categories.
Adding high risk asset classes and investments to a portfolio may
seem risky. But combining assets that behave differently, or even
opposite to each other, both increases the return and lowers the risk
of an entire portfolio. For example, international stocks are
considered "riskier" than domestic stocks. Yet, we often see the prices
of U.S. stocks go up on the same day prices of international stocks go
down -- and vice versa. We call this negative correlation. Profits from
one asset balance the losses from another. Combining international and
U.S. stocks actually lowers investment risk by reducing daily price
swings of our entire portfolio.
History demonstrates many markets exhibit similar negative price
correlation. In a slumping economy, bonds vastly outperform stocks as
interest rates drop. In an overheating economy, inflation helps
generate stellar returns in the commodities market. But timing such
events is unpredictable, and the variability of returns represents risk
to any investor.