As a trader, one of the key things that I try to consciously do is to cultivate my instincts by talking with other traders and investors as often as possible. It still amazes me how large the divergence of opinion that exists regarding what people believe will unfold as we enter the new millennium. Many very respected names are literally predicting an economic earthquake that will measure a 10 on the Richter scale while others having looked at the exact same research claim that the consequences will be very mild. As a trader I have to evaluate the data and develop a strategy that I feel not only gives me an edge but allows for a great deal of error while still being low risk!

In his book, "Business Without Economists" author William J. Hudson submits a theory worthy of every traders consideration. (Particularly now with Y2K just around the corner) He states:

1) The demand for answers will always be greater than the supply.

2) Therefore, the price for answers will be high.

3) Therefore, a very large supply of answers will emerge.

4) Therefore, most answers will be false, especially when tested against reality.

I have this STATEMENT posted on my computer as a reminder to myself that markets are very humbling mechanisms. The key question that we as traders must continuously ask ourselves with regards to whatever trading strategy we enter into is, "What if I am right? And What if I am Wrong?"

As I assess the economic landscape and scan the marketplace for trading opportunities there is one fact that I must pay attention to: The NAME of the GAME is Managing RISK!

With this in mind, let's evaluate some of the important facts:

Many of the Commodity Markets have bounced sharply from their twenty to thirty year lows.

When I cross reference this FACT with the REALITY that INFLATION is back in the economy, it creates some very interesting trading opportunities for the OPTION savvy trader. The key to any trading strategy in my opinion is that it HAS to be low risk because there are so many possible outcomes that may occur.

The purpose of this strategy is to eliminate the need for timing the market by developing a method minimizing my exposure to loss. Before I provide you with the mechanics of this tactic let me illustrate an outlandish possibility so that we can get clear on a traders definition of RISK. Let's say that you are convinced that on March 1, 2005 that you think that Gold is going to be trading at $3,000 dollars an ounce. (I did say outlandish!) Based upon this scenario even if you wholeheartedly disagree, how could you trade this viewpoint and still take very little risk? Most people think that RISK is defined as BEING RIGHT or WRONG on the outcome of a trade.