This is the time of year when many financial columnists and bloggers review their picks, predictions and suggestions made during the past 12 months.
I'm not going to do that, since this blog specifically makes the point that investing is a longer-term process, and picking your winners and losers an average of just six months later is foolish and leads to thinking which doesn't improve your long-term results.
What I am going to do is review the 2006 predictions and suggestions I made, providing a better longer-term outlook.This blog started in February 2006, and on Feb 19th I looked at a portfolio heavy in dividend companies, with the hope that the dividend growth over about 5 years or so, would then pay enough in dividends to make a theoretical mortgage payment used to buy those securities with. Based on history, I was looking for a 10% annual portfolio growth, with about 5% of that coming from dividends, and 5% from capital growth.
Overall, the portfolio is up 12%, plus the dividend yield of about 5% annually, which is producing a return pretty much bang on. The dividends have also grown, from 4.75% annually of the initial portfolio value, to 5.08% annually now. Call that a win overall.
Incidentally, with long-term mortgage rates now in the 5.3% (15yrs) to 5.8% (30yrs) range, now is an excellent time to revisit that same strategy, although I expect the portfolio might well get stuffed today with many more financial firms, given some of their perceived difficulties and consequent high yields. Read the entire
Leverage Series.
Emerging markets was a popular theme for me, calling them good value in March/06, May/06 and October/06. Buying the most-popular emerging markets ETF, "EEM", you'd be up anywhere from 45% to 55% depending upon your entry point. The S&P 500 moved up only 10-15% over that same period. Call that a clear victory.
I also suggested in March/06 that uranium producers had a long tailwind in their industry, given decades of under-mining the resource and shortages to come. The world's largest single uranium producer, Cameco ("CCJ") moved up by just 5% since then, against a 14% increase in the S&P500. However, since then, Cameco has also been
plagued with production problems, which has likely impaired its stock price. Still, call this a loss.
In early March/06, I also warned that I felt the US currency would continue its descent, and later re-iterated this call in April. Since the initial call, the US dollar has lost 18% when measured against its largest competitor currency, the Euro.