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Do I Think A Recession Is Coming?
By: The Wastrel Show   Saturday, January 05, 2008 2:44 PM

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I've been through many financial ups and downs these past few decades. I've been through the recession of the late 1970's. I've waited on gas lines. Even plate numbers on Tuesday. Odd number plates on Wednesday. There were rumors that many people were eating dog food. I know that Hamburger Helper was invented during the 1970's recession. I've listened to the speeches of President Carter as he told all Americans that our thermostats had to be lowered. We had to wear sweaters inside our home, as Carter donned his own wool cardigans. My ex-DH at the time and I had a pellet/wood burning stove installed in our den because we weren't sure we would always be able to get an oil delivery and stay warm in the winter.

I witnessed the stock market crash of 1987. I watched the manufacturing company I was working for at the time slowly go out of business because all their clients were publicly-held companies. My friends (me included) lost a lot of money in the stock market then. I worked through the recession of the early 1990's. We went for years just getting cost-of-living raises because the economy was so bad. Our bosses kept telling us we were to consider ourselves lucky just to have a job. I would see more and more out-of-work neighbors sleeping in our town's public buildings.

The last recession I went through was in 2000-2001. It was the dot-com disaster. My DH was employed in the telecommunications field. That whole sector was almost wiped off the face of the earth. I was working at a computer company. Margins on computers used to be at 10-12%. By 2001, computers were considered loss leaders. Internet shopping was putting brick and mortar stores out of business.

Each recession meant that I either had to go back to school and learn a new career or learn something new. I started my working career as an optical assistant. A few years after graduation, I was replaced by a $180,000 computer. Today that same computer is only around $5,000. Some of the jobs I've held since then have been bookkeeper, financial adviser, budget administrator, office manager, computer guru, graphic designer, caterer and waitress to name a few. I've learned and studied to be a jane-of-all-trades and a master at each and every one of them. I think they call that survival.

Do I think a recession is coming? Based on all my experience being through several of them, I think we are already in one . I don't care what statistics the financial experts say are needed to make that statement: like 2 consecutive quarters of a downturn. By that time, six months will have gone by and then yes, you are in a recession. This time, however, things feel much different. I don't ever remember the American dollar being so devalued. I don't recall the immense trade deficits. I am astounded at the massive amounts of debt people as well as the government are carrying. I'm worried because my experience has shown me that such behavior is unsustainable. I've been through the housing crisis of the mid 1980's and the mid 1990's. This time, however, it appears to be global and that has me concerned.

People are starting to lose their jobs now. Every day brings another announcement of a lay off. Energy and food prices are higher. The stock market has been erratic for many, many months. I have serious doubts that I will be able to see my family this year in Italy. It's just not affordable. Today, President Bush made an announcement that he may propose a new stimulus package to boost the economy. Here's a direct quote:

"While he (Bush) has steadfastly maintained that the economy is fundamentally strong, the fact that the president is considering a so-called fiscal stimulus package is an indication that the Administration is getting worried. "

For some reason, the infamous words of FDR (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) comes to mind: "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." But FDR isn't here anymore and he can't tell me those words. Instead we have authoritative figures telling us everything is fine and we should continue with our shopping. That's what I'm really afraid of. That's why I think that this recession is going to be different. No one is facing up to it and no one is doing anything about it. I think it's time to pull our heads out of the sand. "Houston, I think we have a problem" and I think we should start dealing with it.

And so it goes.

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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