“Streetwise” section out saying that United Rentals (URI) is the kind of co that would be hurt by a recession. The stock has collapsed to around 16. Though much of that derives from the dissolution of a proposed buyout of UR by Cerberus Capital Magmt, the stock is down to ‘03 levels. What's odd is that even though analysts have cut ‘08 EPS ests, UR recently announced preliminary ‘08 guidance of $2.80-3.00. That's based on rental rev growth of 3%, to $2.71bn, and margin improvement that is more than double '07's rise. In a recession, that guidance may prove optimistic, but UR has $2 a share in cash, a decent balance sheet, and trades at a P/E of less than 6x. If its earnings were to fall 50%, it would trade at a P/E around 12. Short of a nasty recession, UR's stock drop may present a long-term opportunity.
Barron’s cover discusses bloodshed on the mkt. Among the few prescient Street seers is veteran Byron Wien, the chief investment strategist at Pequot Capital. At the start of ‘08, Wien predicted that the S&P 500 would drop 10% this yr, that earnings would decline and that the country's first recession since ‘01 would prompt the Fed to cut short-term rates to below 3%. "We're beginning to see some bottoming signs," he said Fri. "We've switched from complacency to concern but not to capitulation yet." Value-oriented investors are getting excited because there are now plenty of inexpensive stocks, measured either by earnings or book value. CB, ALL, TSO, SUN, JCP, M, LEH, MS, LEN, PHM, TOL, DHI, CTX, NVR, KBH, MDC, WB, WFC, BAC, C. JPMorgan (JPM), which has been relatively unscathed by credit problems, is one of few potential buyers of any size in the battered financial sector. That gives CEO Jamie Dimon plenty of leverage if he decides to pursue a deal. Potential targets include WaMu, SunTrust (STI) and even Bear Sterns (BSC).
Barrons’ Roundtable members picks include UPL, WFR, QCOM, FMCN, AMX, GFA, GLD, AEM, MHK, WHR, AEO, GPC, ENSI, DISH, DTV, CSG, GAP and TVL. Pair trade Long FXY – Short GBP. Short ideas include RIMM and AMZN.
MBIA's (MBI) shares were savaged anew last week, and now its stock looks cheap. It trades for about 8, well below a conservative liquidation value above $30 a share.
Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR), whose stock has been in the low 20s, could hit 28 in the next 12 months if clinical trials go well. And, ultimately, the company could be a takeover target.
“Sizing Up Small Caps” column highlights Shutterfly (SFLY), saying that pricing pressure in the digital photo-print business is clouding the picture at Shutterfly. Even at that level, the shares, up 45%+ in the past yr, sell at 96x trailing earnings and 35x ‘08 profit ests. Prudent investors should balk at paying up for this consumer play just as US economic growth is dimming.
