rsiMarkets Re-cap
Market intervention, which had countered the global equity market sell-off shortly after 3:00am ET yesterday morning, re-appeared at about 8am with a major speech by US Treasury Secretary Paulson, and then again, when Paulson was speaking, by an announcement from the Federal Reserve Bank of an Emergency cut of -75 basis points in the Fed Funds rate to 3.50 pct. Full court press.
As I wrote before much of the action occurred, "The signs were clear: plunging US equity futures, which were being hammered, reversed; the European bourses appeared to be opening much stronger than their Asia-Pacific counterparts, and precious metal spot prices bottomed out… The smell of a rally attempt is in the air… All eyes are on Prof. Bernanke."
The DJIA opened at about 11650, down about -450 points from the Friday close of 12099. By the end of the session however, the DJIA was off only -128.11 (-1.06 pct) to 11971). The S&P 500 closed down -14.69, and the Nasdaq Composite was off -47.75.
Excluding Germany (DAX -0.31 pct), European shares ended mostly higher. The UK FTSE 100 jumped +2.90 pct.
The big hits to the US sector ETFs were to Healthcare (XLV -3.47 pct), Utilities (XLU -3.45 pct) and Energy (XLE -3.11 pct). Basic Materials (XLB -0.91 pct) were strongest, but still down.
On the economic front, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity index for December slid to -0.91 vs. -0.29 in November, which is its lowest level since 2003.
The major story on the corporate earning's front was Bank of America Corp's (BAC) 4Q net income drop of -95 pct to $268 million vs. $5.26 billion a year earlier. BAC took -$5.28 billion in collateralized debt obligation write-downs and also reported soaring credit costs.
After the Fed Rate cut, the $USD traded sharply down vs. the Euro and the Cdn Dollar, but closed down just -0.05 pct against the Euro. It managed a gain of +0.47 pct against the Yen.
Crude Oil traded down to $89.85/bbl.
$GOLD also rocketed on the news of the emergency rate cut. Gold reversed intraday to trade up to $892.70/troy oz.
The 30-year US bond rallied sharply (+0.99 pct) to close at 120.78, and the yield dropped -1.63 pct to 4.227. The yield on the 10-year is now down to 3.484 and the 5-year T-note down to 2.623.
But that was yesterday. Today could be a return to a global equity market rally, or possibly not. There are two sides to the story today.
In Asia-Pacific markets earlier today, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong, which had previously plunged -8.65 pct, rocketed +10.72 pct. Shanghai (-7.22 pct the day earlier) jumped +3.14 pct. The Nikkei 225 of Japan (after -5.65 pct) lifted +2.04 pct. The BSE 30 of India (after -3.69 pct) rallied +5.17 pct. And, the All-Ordinaries of Australia rebounded from a drop of -7.26 pct to today's gain of +4.28 pct.
This is extreme volatility, obviously, but a very good day for the Far East markets.
Early today, the Dollar:Euro March futures are showing the Euro down -0.25 pct to 1.4558. The Brent Crude is down -1.17 pct.
March DJIA futures, which on Monday had been crushed by well over -500 points, traded back sharply during the day. But as of 7:00am ET this morning are now down -131 to 11820.
Clearly, there are serious Bear issues remaining in the marketplace.
Spot gold has been unchanged since midnight, at 886.40 at just past 7am. Spot silver is up +0.05 to 15.96.
Comments & Outlook
Absolutely shocking to me is the divergence between this morning's US equity futures (showing a double digit Dow decline at the open) and the stunning rally overnight in some of the Asia-Pacific markets, particularly Hong Kong.
Check out this sample of HK large cap stock prices during the session today:
1398
Ind & Com BK China ...
4.92 +0.49 +11.06%
0857
Petrochina
11.3 +1.68 +17.46%
0005
Hsbc Holdings
116.2 +11.8 +11.30%
0941
China Mobile
120.3 +11.4 +10.47%
3988
Bank of China Ltd ...
3.33 +0.25 + 8.12%
2628
China Life
31.95 +4.35 +15.76%
0939
China Construction ...
5.78 + 0.8 +16.06%
American traders seem to be focused on the Fiscal 2Q revenue forecast from Apple (AAPL) that guided sales to a possible +29 pct growth, which Wall Street said was disappointing. Pre-market trades in AAPL are down over -10 pct to 139.48 from the close of 155.64, as traders are showing concerns over consumer spending in the US.
The recession story will still not go away. It's as if HB&B are deliberately pushing, in their own interest, further rate cuts. That would certainly help bank profitability as banks are always reluctant to cut prime lending rates or credit card loan rates.
As I see it, HB&B is the party issuing the talking points to today's media, and it's disgraceful conduct. These bankers are desperate to regain their footing and their power. It must be hard for their executives to look themselves in the mirror after getting on their knees to the Sovereign Wealth Funds. I suppose this is their attempt to even the score.
It's time for Treasury Secretary Paulson to address this most serious issue. After all, for many years until May 2006, he was the head honcho at HB&B. Is he now going to serve the people or is it business as usual?
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
US Economic Calendar.
Knobias Cara100 Tables
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| BBBY | 29.190 | +2.140 | +7.9 | 14.7M |
| TGT | 53.750 | +3.650 | +7.3 | 27.6M |
| KSS | 42.800 | +2.800 | +7 | 12.5M |
| JCP | 43.430 | +2.500 | +6.1 | 12.3M |
| ABX | 49.490 | +2.760 | +5.9 | 22.5M |
| GG | 36.010 | +1.530 | +4.4 | 13.6M |
| WHR | 74.590 | +3.060 | +4.3 | 2.7M |
| CCL | 39.810 | +1.550 | +4.1 | 8.8M |
| WMT | 49.200 | +1.620 | +3.4 | 44.3M |
| LEH | 55.050 | +1.800 | +3.4 | 24.8M |
| RY | 47.210 | +1.430 | +3.1 | 1.8M |
| BDK | 67.580 | +1.830 | +2.8 | 1.7M |
| PBR | 96.810 | +2.440 | +2.6 | 16.9M |
| COST | 66.090 | +1.560 | +2.4 | 9.8M |
| NUE | 52.270 | +1.050 | +2 | 7.7M |
| GS | 190.550 | +3.340 | +1.8 | 19M |
| RIMM | 90.100 | +1.520 | +1.7 | 34.7M |
| BC | 15.320 | +0.230 | +1.5 | 3.1M |
| NKE | 57.330 | +0.830 | +1.5 | 5.5M |
| UBS | 40.500 | +0.500 | +1.2 | 9.1M |
| WAG | 34.100 | +0.390 | +1.2 | 12.8M |
| CCJ | 34.640 | +0.350 | +1 | 7.3M |
| WFMI | 35.430 | +0.350 | +1 | 5.2M |
| TS | 36.720 | +0.200 | +0.5 | 4.3M |
| SLW | 16.060 | +0.080 | +0.5 | 4.9M |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| CHA | 74.300 | -8.700 | -10.5 | 863.5K |
| PTR | 140.600 | -14.560 | -9.4 | 3.5M |
| CEO | 137.710 | -12.300 | -8.2 | 1.1M |
| RIO | 26.860 | -1.970 | -6.8 | 60.2M |
| BMY | 22.910 | -1.570 | -6.4 | 46.4M |
| ORCL | 20.220 | -1.360 | -6.3 | 66.8M |
| TOT | 73.440 | -4.770 | -6.1 | 7M |
| TEF | 88.700 | -5.690 | -6 | 1.3M |
| GRMN | 59.360 | -3.630 | -5.8 | 6.9M |
| SU | 85.800 | -4.690 | -5.2 | 6.4M |
| AET | 53.330 | -2.760 | -4.9 | 5.4M |
| VIP | 32.330 | -1.630 | -4.8 | 8.4M |
| BHP | 57.820 | -2.900 | -4.8 | 9M |
| HDB | 113.110 | -5.510 | -4.6 | 978.6K |
| WBK | 110.240 | -5.230 | -4.5 | 16.5K |
| MBT | 85.000 | -3.780 | -4.3 | 3M |
| YHOO | 19.920 | -0.860 | -4.1 | 38M |
| IMO | 47.170 | -1.990 | -4 | 674.6K |
| BBD | 25.860 | -1.080 | -4 | 12.4M |
| DELL | 20.260 | -0.820 | -3.9 | 53.9M |
| QCOM | 36.910 | -1.440 | -3.8 | 29.6M |
| ADBE | 34.050 | -1.280 | -3.6 | 10.2M |
| EXC | 73.130 | -2.730 | -3.6 | 8.5M |
| PDA | 41.070 | -1.490 | -3.5 | 197.5K |
| VCP | 24.940 | -0.890 | -3.4 | 1.3M |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| NONE FOUND. |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| BMY | 22.610 | 22.910 | -1.570 | -6.41 | 46.38M |
| YHOO | 19.260 | 19.920 | -0.860 | -4.14 | 37.99M |
| DELL | 19.850 | 20.260 | -0.820 | -3.89 | 53.94M |
| QCOM | 35.170 | 36.910 | -1.440 | -3.75 | 29.58M |
| ADBE | 32.990 | 34.050 | -1.280 | -3.62 | 10.20M |
| CSCO | 22.310 | 23.470 | -0.830 | -3.42 | 108.66M |
| GSK | 47.340 | 48.770 | -1.660 | -3.29 | 3.51M |
| PAYX | 31.460 | 32.170 | -1.040 | -3.13 | 4.56M |
| TM | 91.210 | 96.660 | -3.040 | -3.05 | 1.35M |
| GOL | 16.950 | 18.230 | -0.540 | -2.88 | 1.65M |
| SNDK | 26.000 | 26.970 | -0.770 | -2.78 | 9.39M |
| DB | 104.110 | 111.710 | -3.040 | -2.65 | 2.20M |
| CTSH | 23.370 | 25.350 | -0.650 | -2.50 | 6.52M |
| HBC | 70.420 | 72.970 | -1.560 | -2.09 | 5.05M |
| INTC | 18.050 | 18.630 | -0.370 | -1.95 | 146.89M |
| TGP | 27.830 | 28.550 | -0.500 | -1.72 | 56.38K |
| LLTC | 26.370 | 26.950 | -0.420 | -1.53 | 8.46M |
| DIS | 26.300 | 28.100 | -0.410 | -1.44 | 20.53M |
| TCK | 27.060 | 29.220 | -0.350 | -1.18 | 1.93M |
| DEO | 73.750 | 76.730 | -0.890 | -1.15 | 1.04M |
| BA | 74.400 | 77.530 | -0.870 | -1.11 | 8.49M |
| INFY | 35.000 | 37.980 | -0.040 | -0.11 | 4.60M |
| DOW | 33.010 | 34.930 | -0.010 | -0.03 | 11.63M |
| SBUX | 17.660 | 18.670 | +0.010 | +0.05 | 21.77M |
| TS | 34.910 | 36.720 | +0.200 | +0.55 | 4.31M |
| WFMI | 34.140 | 35.430 | +0.350 | +1.00 | 5.25M |
| WAG | 32.500 | 34.100 | +0.390 | +1.16 | 12.76M |
| UBS | 37.210 | 40.500 | +0.500 | +1.25 | 9.07M |
| BC | 14.460 | 15.320 | +0.230 | +1.52 | 3.06M |
| RY | 44.250 | 47.210 | +1.430 | +3.12 | 1.78M |
| CCL | 37.610 | 39.810 | +1.550 | +4.05 | 8.79M |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| PTR | 140.600 | -9.4 | 3.5M | +274 |
| DB | 111.710 | -2.6 | 2.2M | +216 |
| CCJ | 34.640 | +1 | 7.3M | +204 |
| TOT | 73.440 | -6.1 | 7M | +186 |
| RIO | 26.860 | -6.8 | 60.2M | +185 |
| BMY | 22.910 | -6.4 | 46.4M | +181 |
| SU | 85.800 | -5.2 | 6.4M | +177 |
| UBS | 40.500 | +1.2 | 9.1M | +162 |
| TM | 96.660 | -3 | 1.3M | +153 |
| HBC | 72.970 | -2.1 | 5.1M | +145 |
| MFC | 34.865 | -1.6 | 3M | +143 |
| CEO | 137.710 | -8.2 | 1.1M | +135 |
| RY | 47.210 | +3.1 | 1.8M | +134 |
| JNJ | 65.310 | -1.5 | 29.1M | +131 |
| PBR | 96.810 | +2.6 | 16.9M | +129 |
| BBBY | 29.190 | +7.9 | 14.7M | +127 |
| BHP | 57.820 | -4.8 | 9M | +124 |
| IMO | 47.170 | -4 | 674.6K | +121 |
| MBT | 85.000 | -4.3 | 3M | +120 |
| VCP | 24.940 | -3.4 | 1.3M | +120 |
| ABB | 23.270 | -1.7 | 13.3M | +118 |
| VIP | 32.330 | -4.8 | 8.4M | +118 |
| WMT | 49.200 | +3.4 | 44.3M | +118 |
| PG | 65.140 | -3 | 25.6M | +117 |
| CCL | 39.810 | +4.1 | 8.8M | +116 |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | | NEW | BEFORE | | AFTER |
| INFY | JP Morgan | --- | | --- | Neutral | | Overweight |
| BBBY | Bernstein | --- | | --- | Mkt Perform | | Outperform |
| KSS | Bernstein | --- | | --- | Mkt Perform | | Outperform |
| ABX | CSFB | 43.00 | | 59.00 | Equal Weight | | Outperform |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION |
| NONE FOUND. |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | | NEW | BEFORE | | AFTER |
| HBC | Morgan Stanley | --- | | --- | Overweight | | Equal-weight |
| MBT | CSFB | --- | | --- | Outperform | | Neutral |
| JCP | Piper Jaffray | --- | | 40.00 | Buy | | Neutral |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION |
| NONE FOUND. |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|
| ABX | 49.58 | 78.11 | 70.05 | 61.25 | Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago (on 2008-01-15 at $50.25, -1.33% chg), after a 8 day DZ) |
| ATVI | 26.50 | 77.71 | 58.21 | 34.15 | |
| IBN | 61.68 | 74.46 | 49.98 | 35.46 | Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago (on 2008-01-15 at $66.03, -6.59% chg), after a 3 day DZ) |
| COST | 66.14 | 71.77 | 48.81 | 51.53 | |
| PBR | 96.58 | 71.12 | 45.65 | 31.68 | |
| GG | 36.03 | 70.36 | 60.13 | 52.05 | Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago (on 2008-01-15 at $36.60, -1.56% chg), after a 1 day DZ) |
| SLW | 16.07 | 70.01 | 53.82 | 44.85 | |
| WMT | 49.20 | 64.02 | 63.82 | 70.59 | |
| TGT | 53.83 | 41.24 | 47.53 | 73.79 | |
| AMAT | 18.00 | 40.41 | 46.60 | 72.39 | |
| JCP | 43.32 | 21.18 | 43.69 | 70.15 | Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago (on 2008-01-10 at $37.55, +15.37% chg), after a 5 day AZ) |
| BBBY | 29.26 | 17.99 | 44.96 | 71.93 | Buy alert (trig. 6 days ago (on 2008-01-14 at $26.66, +9.75% chg), after a 1 day AZ) |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|
| BC | 15.30 | 14.31 | 19.51 | 38.98 | Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago (on 2008-01-18 at $15.09, +1.39% chg), after a 3 day AZ) |
| SBUX | 18.67 | 16.07 | 21.77 | 37.78 | |
| KSS | 42.89 | 16.99 | 35.74 | 63.60 | Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago (on 2008-01-16 at $39.57, +8.39% chg), after a 9 day AZ) |
| BBBY | 29.26 | 17.99 | 44.96 | 71.93 | Buy alert (trig. 6 days ago (on 2008-01-14 at $26.66, +9.75% chg), after a 1 day AZ) |
| UBS | 40.56 | 20.06 | 30.78 | 26.89 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago (on 2008-01-22 at $40.56, +0.00% chg), after a 2 day AZ) |
| JCP | 43.32 | 21.18 | 43.69 | 70.15 | Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago (on 2008-01-10 at $37.55, +15.37% chg), after a 5 day AZ) |
| WAG | 34.07 | 21.63 | 32.04 | 45.95 | Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago (on 2008-01-16 at $33.24, +2.50% chg), after a 2 day AZ) |
| HBC | 73.11 | 22.78 | 18.98 | 14.89 | Accumulation Zone (for 4 days) |
| LLTC | 26.95 | 25.01 | 17.49 | 25.27 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| SNDK | 26.97 | 25.15 | 14.63 | 24.84 | Accumulation Zone (for 4 days) |
| PAYX | 32.12 | 25.74 | 17.56 | 24.43 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| TM | 96.91 | 26.43 | 21.20 | 25.57 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| DELL | 20.25 | 26.98 | 25.76 | 26.40 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| DIS | 28.12 | 29.29 | 15.33 | 10.63 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| GOL | 18.23 | 29.46 | 19.49 | 8.39 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| BMY | 22.89 | 29.97 | 22.79 | 13.85 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| CTSH | 25.40 | 30.49 | 23.10 | 24.72 | Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago (on 2008-01-16 at $26.20, -3.05% chg), after a 1 day AZ) |
| DOW | 34.94 | 30.59 | 23.92 | 25.32 | |
| WFMI | 35.43 | 30.69 | 25.52 | 35.08 | |
| BA | 77.60 | 30.77 | 20.94 | 29.61 | Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago (on 2008-01-16 at $79.87, -2.84% chg), after a 1 day AZ) |
| YHOO | 19.86 | 31.55 | 21.36 | 18.62 | Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago (on 2008-01-18 at $20.78, -4.43% chg), after a 1 day AZ) |
| CSCO | 23.48 | 31.56 | 18.23 | 16.02 | |
| INTC | 18.61 | 31.92 | 19.56 | 15.93 | |
| INFY | 37.93 | 32.29 | 30.71 | 19.48 | |
| TGP | 28.55 | 32.33 | 32.89 | 21.16 | |
| CCL | 39.84 | 32.54 | 28.31 | 45.66 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago (on 2008-01-22 at $39.84, +0.00% chg), after a 2 day AZ) |
| ADBE | 34.00 | 32.60 | 19.40 | 9.23 | |
| DB | 111.75 | 32.63 | 27.91 | 15.25 | |
| TS | 36.63 | 33.07 | 16.13 | 21.33 | |
| TCK | 29.29 | 34.33 | 25.60 | 18.47 | |
| GRMN | 59.36 | 37.11 | 22.12 | 14.31 | |
| GE | 34.05 | 37.34 | 24.03 | 35.56 | |
| CCJ | 34.50 | 39.06 | 30.13 | 24.58 | |
| ERTS | 49.49 | 40.71 | 30.31 | 20.66 | |
| MFC | 34.80 | 40.89 | 22.29 | 6.48 | |
| ERJ | 41.27 | 41.59 | 28.13 | 22.00 | |
| GSK | 48.84 | 41.95 | 36.76 | 22.05 | |
| DEO | 76.73 | 42.02 | 19.63 | 23.19 | |
| UTX | 67.24 | 42.53 | 22.47 | 13.31 | |
| STO | 26.09 | 42.93 | 28.99 | 25.80 | |
| SU | 85.80 | 46.05 | 27.00 | 12.58 | |
| PTR | 140.70 | 46.86 | 28.04 | 17.10 | |
| BHP | 57.82 | 47.61 | 28.33 | 19.68 | |
| PG | 65.13 | 47.81 | 24.68 | 5.88 | |
| TOT | 73.45 | 49.24 | 33.80 | 19.95 | |
| CVX | 81.25 | 49.85 | 28.62 | 16.79 | |
| XOM | 82.45 | 49.87 | 28.63 | 20.41 | |
| NTES | 18.20 | 50.58 | 39.92 | 23.81 | |
| EXC | 73.13 | 50.93 | 30.01 | 16.66 | |
| VCP | 24.94 | 51.94 | 31.44 | 21.90 | |
| BBD | 25.86 | 52.74 | 34.09 | 19.20 | |
| NKE | 57.29 | 52.94 | 27.58 | 31.43 | |
| OXPS | 27.75 | 53.09 | 37.48 | 23.16 | |
| ECA | 60.97 | 53.69 | 30.60 | 20.48 | |
| ABB | 23.28 | 54.55 | 33.66 | 23.21 | |
| RIO | 26.85 | 54.80 | 31.21 | 19.76 | |
| GGB | 24.84 | 54.82 | 36.91 | 23.66 | |
| PDA | 41.07 | 54.88 | 32.99 | 20.45 | |
| NOK | 31.70 | 55.19 | 28.30 | 21.83 | |
| IMO | 47.17 | 55.26 | 36.97 | 20.85 | |
| CEO | 137.71 | 56.38 | 35.91 | 20.53 | |
| JNJ | 65.27 | 56.93 | 41.18 | 23.84 | |
| GOOG | 584.35 | 57.19 | 32.06 | 18.76 | |
| MICC | 94.46 | 58.23 | 37.55 | 25.85 | |
| AET | 53.43 | 59.36 | 35.77 | 26.81 | |
| CHL | 75.53 | 61.60 | 34.58 | 29.85 | |
| TEF | 88.70 | 66.67 | 35.43 | 25.24 | |
| KO | 58.79 | 67.63 | 37.45 | 20.82 | Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago (on 2008-01-11 at $63.77, -7.81% chg), after a 2 day DZ) |
| HDB | 113.15 | 68.75 | 41.88 | 29.55 | |
| MBT | 85.00 | 69.56 | 43.29 | 29.92 | |
| VIP | 32.26 | 69.69 | 40.17 | 19.95 | |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the
latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA (interactive) chart