Good morning. Following the best weekly gain in the
S&P 500 since 2003, we're set for a mixed open amid strength in overseas markets, some earnings (see
HUM and
ADM), and news that Google has offered to help Yahoo! fight off Microsoft's unsolicited offer.
Commodities prices are weak and don't forget that many in New York are basking in the Giants' superbowl victory. (See stats on the superbowl indicator.)
Premarket gainers: YHOO, MSFT, GU, RNWK, ACH, OMRI, SWC, PALM, SNP, SGTL, CERS, MESA, FDRY, COIN, SEED, LFC, GME, ACH, EPIC, and BRLC.
Premarket losers: DTG, RYAAY, MSTR, ESLR, GOOG, BRCM, CWTR, WEN, BEAV, ACGY, and LLNW.
So far, we're off to a slow start this week as there is not a lot of market moving news this morning. However, Challenger has provided the January layoffs numbers and they are consistent with Friday's dismal employment report. The Census Bureau's report on factory orders for December at 10:AM is the only new datapoint. The report is expected to show a 2% rise following November's 1.5% advance. Fed member Kroszner is scheduled to speak at 11:20AM in Las Vegas.
The big question on everyone's mind this morning is simple - can the market manage the same kind of swift recoveries as it did with other declines last year? The bulls continue to hold fast to their view that even if we are in a recession, that it won't last long and valuations remain low along with confidence that lower rates will stimulate the economy. In addition, there is some chatter once again about the insider buying activity as a bullish indicator.
In my view, a big issue this week will be overbought conditions, which at a minimum need time and/or downward price pressure to work off. Historically, the first half of February tends to be a little stronger than the second half, but following the volatility we've seen, I'm fairly sure that most are not paying attention to that.
In my view, it will be useful to see if the bulls can consolidate the recent gains without much price pressure and how they react to whatever news and earnings we see over the next five days. Let's make it a great week!