Annaly, Capstead, Anworth - Bounce?
A very knowledgeable NCN member focusing mainly on financials had some interesting comments this AM:
I know I keep talking about this but heres the difference between Thornburg (NYSE:TMA)... and the Annaly (NYSE:NLY), Capstead (NYSE:CMO), Anworth (NYSE:ANH),.. they are 99% that same animal.... use mortgage bonds/loans as collateral to lever themselves up and play the carry trade.
The only difference (and its a HUGE one) is that NLY,CMO,ANH are 100% FNM/FRE AGENCY mbs bonds... while TMA is 100% private sector mbs.
TMA is getting margin called to death on their aaa portfolio b/c their underlying collateral has vaporized and at 18:1 leverage... it don't take much to get your credit lines pulled.
Aan the other hand NLY, CMO, ANH only own Fannie Freddie debt which is super liquid and not seeing price erosion AT ALL. Thus...NLY, CMO, ANH running their 10:1 leverage are no where near margin calls.... but the lemmings selling these names are probably clueless to the difference between the 2 business models .
I think it's probably worth picking up a few sharres near the open for an intraday pop. I bet the smart money comes in within the first 15 min of trading and takes NLY up a point off the lows.
If u do it... just buy in increments as they are dropping... just so you dont get too heavy if some big blocks come in to knockem down further.
Check out Monday mornings open... NLY opend horribly and bounced back over 1.50 when the smart $$ came in.
The only other reason I can see for the assinine selling of these names is that folks that own TMA may also own NLY and are thus getting margin called themselves.
Notablecalls: Love the comments. This comes from a guy who got short Thorn (NYSE:TMA) when things got ugly. Watch NLY, CMO & ANH.
PS: I'm hearing some pretty loud chatter saying one tier-1 house has 7-figure amount of NLY to sell this morn. Should be enough to knock it down early on.
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