One of the best "timing indicators" that we love to point to years later is
how wrong the major newspapers are at major market bottoms and tops. It makes
sense because newspapers report THE NEWS not "THE FUTURE."
was getting rich on company stock options and quitting jobs to be day traders
when the market was at a peak in March 2000, the newspapers were full of success
stories about this. Likewise, the papers were full of how much money people were
making in real estate a couple of years ago before the bottom fell out for many
markets around the country.
So, it should be no surprise to read today
that people are worried that the bad times will turn into a depression.
Here are three bearish articles that "ring the bell" for those who can
March 23, 2008 New York Times: Depression,
You Say? Check Those Safety Nets Excerpts:
- "Some innocent bystanders might be forgiven for wondering why that last
word — "depression" — has started popping up. Is it possible our economy could
speed past a recession into a full-blown depression like that of the 1930s, when
American unemployment reached 25 percent?"
"Even if consumer
confidence hit rock bottom, that most likely would not be enough, by itself, to
cause a depression. For things to become really dire, the nation's financial
institutions would have to fail at the same time that unemployment began
significantly rising. Only if banks suddenly closed, or it became impossible for
companies to access short-term lines of credit, would things begin spiraling out
"Some economists and financiers say it's likely
that the current recession will extend for at least a year. Others think the
American economy will suffer from an extended malaise as Japan did in the
"But whatever name economists give the current
downturn, we are unlikely to see the bread lines, shantytowns and dust bowl of
the Great Depression.