It is always so fun to watch analysts clash with each other; especially over a fan favorite such as Google (GOOG). I've had a stake in this name since day 1 in the fund, but it's never been a large stake (usually 1% or less of the fund holdings). I've had an open question since last August how Google would react in its first full blown recession. (Aug 30: Google Can't Get Any Traction - is this Why?) Of course at that time no one said we were going into a recession. I mean even now we have a lot of holdouts ;) after all everything will be fine "in 6 months"; unemployment is low and will rebound "in 6 months"; inflation almost nil and any inflation that there is will be gone "in 6 months", and the housing market will be back "in 6 months". Folks I just can't wait until we reach 6 months from now - nirvana! But let's assume nirvana is not going to happen despite CNBC's assurances. It would seem reasonable to a rational person that in a recessionary environment that consumers buy less.... and hence click on ads to buy things less... and hence corporations pay less for ads... and hence Google would suffer. Of course we are not in a rational world, but just saying...

The stock has been in bad shape, and unlike Apple (AAPL) which I am constructive on, Google I still see no rush to get back in. Remember, despite all its prowess it is still levered to the domestic subprime economy - certainly far more than Apple (of course both could fall under the banner of consumer related). Even mighty Google appears to be getting dragged down by its heavy US exposure - shows you just how bad things are (err in theory, but not per pundits). We are seeing a slowdown in click thru's on their ads but if it's more macro economic or more change in efficiencies of ads is up for debate. But in a way, we don't really need to know "why" - we just have to respect the stock action - which is putrid. One could pick at bottoms here and expose themselves to further downside and/or months of sideway action or wait for a true turn up (missing the first part of the move). In a general sense (always exceptions) I prefer the latter scenario. What I see with this data is uncertainty - and the one thing Wall Street hates more than bad news is uncertainty (this entire credit contagion is the best example of this). So at this point I am just sitting on my small stake and waiting it out...