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Earnings Review - What Did We Learn by Ignoring CNBC & Government Reports?
By: TraderMark   Tuesday, April 29, 2008 6:33 PM

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First the market - we continue to cling in a tiny range... can't get over that S&P 1400 level no matter what. All week everyone sits on their hands and waits for the Gods from D.C. to tell us what they do with the peons... we expect 25 basis point and then statements saying balances are risked, we care about inflation blah blah. Or maybe even no cut. Either way it doesn't matter much - these are long term situations yet not a trader on Wall Street can hit buy or sell this week until they see the action. This has to be the most telegraphed "we are stopping after this meeting" I've ever seen but still the blackjack players are waiting to see the knee jerk reaction before placing chips. Will anyone care in October 2008 if rates are 2 or 2.25%? No. But for tomorrow it's the most important thing in the world. I'm more interested in Friday's piece of fiction from the government - you know, the monthly "no seriously - unemployment is not an issue" report.

A quick look back at some of the names I mentioned I was looking at earlier this week, all important data points for our forming our macro point of views so we can ignore CNBC blather and government reports which are useless.

In the restaurant biz, Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) shows why you don't want to be short or long going into earnings - too much risk, up 10% in after hours on ok earnings - when expectations begin to get so low, it becomes easy to pass the low bar. Their costs rose 22%. If this were a government report their costs would only be up 3%. That's like dog years. I actually like this company, so it's one reason I watch it; but just in a tough neighborhood (restaurants). Domino's Pizza (DPZ) did not far so well. Stop if you've heard this before but United States of Subprime sales down 5.2%, but international sales up 8.8%. In an interesting tidbit the CEO is saying they need to focus on the lower price market, something they've ignored for years.... translation - the pooring of America continues as real wages (adjusted for inflation) continue to eat away our middle class - and companies need to adjust. More and more people are entering the "lower class" so companies need to move "down market". What does it mean for companies? Lower profits. Folks, these are secular issues (not cyclical) . If you believe inflation is permanently going to be a higher issue in my "World of Shortages" scenario than profit margins will be permanently squeezed, and the living wage in America is simply not going to keep up - our lower class will only grow and the gap between rich and poor, already at levels last seen in 1929 will only widen. That's how you lead to social unrest. Unlike the late 1970s where workers were able to get wage increases of 10%+ to compensate for sky high inflation, we are in a new era where employers simply say, we'll find another you if you don't take this 3.2% wage increase. Bad for Main Street. Great for Wall Street.

In the pharmacy benefit space (names I like), MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS) did ok but since they did not give the lemmings what they wanted on guidance, the stock traded down.

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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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