The only surprise today was bulls couldn’t pump an end-of-month window dressing rally. T he Fed gave investors what was expected coupled with a mixed message of guidance.

To believe the Fed is now in inflation fighting mode with Fed Funds at 2% is comical. Barry Ritholtz probably outlined this comedy best with his Big Picture post today. Basically, if you believe in the so-called “core rate” then the inflation adjusted GDP hasn’t yet scored two consecutive negative quarters constituting a recession but if you think it’s laughable we’ve got a recession already. Ritholtz concludes by saying: “By any honest measure of inflation -- and not the 3.5% BEA price index for gross domestic purchases -- both of the past two quarters would have been negative. How can we have an understated inflation rate of 4%, and a GDP Price Deflator of just 2.6%?”

So, if you don’t drink the government’s Kool Aid then you know we’re already in recession. There’s a real disconnect between how people feel about their economic realities versus what the government tells them it is. It’s dishonest and deliberately misleading. It’s been this way since the early 1980s as we’ve been outlining.

Volume was much higher today [even though Yahoo/Finance can’t add columns still] while breadth was negative.


































































































We’ve complained often here regarding manipulated and misleading government data. The bottom line is not what I believe but the action of the tape even if it’s built on phony information. If folks can make money by drinking Kool Aid then “here’s looking at you kid” has to be the response.

Tomorrow we begin the always fun month of May. The “sell in May and go away” theme will be repeated in the media frequently. A review of that phenomenon is more based on “when” in May you sold when that maxim held true.

Have a pleasant evening.