Well well well.
So The Fed comes out with more expansions of throwing their balance sheet to the wind, and the market spikes, then thinks - "heh, wait a second, what are they REALLY trying to pull here?" and pulls back.
Then the employment number (which The Fed had, by the way) comes out and its better than expected - but negative.
Why not down huge? Government hiring. Lots of it.
This is good, right?
Well, actually, no its not. Tax receipts are way down at the national level and in fact
sales tax receipts are down on a national basis too.
Folks, Bear Markets are irrational.
Always.
If you do not have sound money management behind your actions in a market like this you will be destroyed - no matter whether you are a Bull or a Bear.
Back in the summer - early August - I wrote a ticker that I called "
Come to Jesus".
It is even more important now than it was then. Go back and read it if you've forgotten what I wrote, because I keep seeing people both cheering and crying alternatively in the forum, and its obvious that this hasn't sunk in - never mind that its in the
banner and thus right "in your face" every time you log in.
Go back and look at the Bear Market of 2000-2003. There were
twenty percent moves in both directions during that market, which is more than enough to destroy your account several times over if you're imprudent and/or leveraged beyond where you should be.
It is not my place to offer investment advice, and as the disclaimers all over the blog and forum point out, I don't. I neither want to run someone else's money nor do I. That's your responsibility.
I don't know how many times I have to pound the table on the
fact that most investors are best off in Cash during Bear Markets, not trying to play short.
The reason is simple - Bear Market have a long and storied history of
blowing up both Bear and Bull believers accounts!Now if you wish to believe the numbers in the employment report, with
finance allegedly reporting gains in employment, have at it.
If you want to believe that The Fed is expanding its credit window to take credit card asset-backed securities because everything is ok, that's fine too.
If you expect the market to blow up imminently, you may be waiting a long time.
Or not.
The problem is that its virtually impossible to time these things.
So if you're day trading, there's money to be made, if you're quick. If you're not quick, you'll be dead eventually, no matter how right you are.