In A Nutshell. Very Strong Outlook. The stock closed up 16% Monday at $50.97. We hold the common since $14 and June calls which are doing nicely. This note incorporates my pre-call piece from Monday morning before the open as well as some additional notes and a back of the envelope model to gauge the potential impact on the shares which should help answer the question, "have they run too far too fast?" For a look at the initial snapshot I did on them before they went public click here and for a review at the beginning of the year click here. 

CLR Reports Good 1Q08 Results; Guides Toward High Double Digit Growth By YE 2008

The 1Q08 Numbers: 

• EPS of $0.53 (ex item) vs $0.49 Street Consensus
• CFPS of $0.92 vs $0.92                "         "
• Revenues of $228 million vs $218 million expected
• Production: 30,237 boepd; flat sequentially and 8% YoY.

Guidance:

• Capital budget going up $167 million or 27% to $783 million. About $100 million of the increase goes to accelerate the North Dakota Bakken program.

• 2008 Expected Exit Rate: 43,000 boepd, up 42% from average 1Q08 production.  

Red River Units - Southern North Dakota - the company's corner stone play

• 13,620 bopd, down 3% sequentially from 14,086 boepd in the fourth quarter -  the dip in sequential production was due to conversion of more formally producing wells to injector status.
• this gets part of the capex boost,
• 4 rigs vs prior plans of 5 to 6 for 2008.
• Production is now expected to peak at 21,000 bopd in mid 2009, up from a YE2007 projection of 19,000 bopd in 2009.

Bakken Oil Shale Update: 487,000 net acres - now largest leaseholder and producer. Moving rig count up to 10-12 later this month and will add a 13th rig in the 3Q, up from 6 -8 rigs planned as of the last quarterly report.

• Montana: (under development) - 
• Production of 6,678 vs 7,244 net boepd in 4Q07,
• still at 2 -3 rigs for 2008
• North Dakota: (emerging potential)
• Production of 1,532 boepd vs 1,382 boepd in 4Q07, (expect that to be coming up quickly as rigs are redeployed (10 of the eventual 13 will be in the ND Bakken)).
• Getting $100 million additional dollar this year.

• Recent IP's in the 400 to 700 bopd on 7 day tests. This takes you to an EUR of 400 to 735,000 barrels vs the 335,000 boe seen before.