I should have seen this coming. Feedback from the "
Making Sense of Commodity Products" article skewed heavily in favor of more side-by-side
comparisons. Most particularly, folks are interested in the burgeoning array of
agricultural products hitting the Street.
It's no wonder, really. There have been nine broadly based exchange-traded
agriculture index products launched in the United States since the beginning of
2007. How's one supposed to tell one from the other?
Not to worry. That's why we're here at Hard Assets Investors.
All but the oldest agricultural products are exchange-traded notes. That
shouldn't come as a surprise. By their nature, ETNs are easier to get through
securities registration. Because ETNs come down the regulatory chute quicker,
they can appear on the scene in a much more timely manner.
Certainly, the timing of Deutsche Bank's recent agriculture bonanza,
including leveraged and inverse exposures, was well-timed. The party atmosphere
in the grain pits has recently given way to more sodden thinking, so bearish
products have found purchase.
Deutsche Bank staked out its ownership of the exchange-traded ag index space
earlier when the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (AMEX: DBA)
was launched in 2007. DBA tracks the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity
Index-Optimum Yield Agriculture by investing in an equally weighted portfolio of
corn, wheat, soybean and sugar futures collateralized by U.S. Treasury
securities.
Four newly minted Deutsche Bank ETNs offer long and short takes on the ag
index:
- DB Agriculture Long ETN (NYSE Arca: AGF)
- DB Agriculture Double Long ETN (NYSE Arca: DAG)
- DB Agriculture Short ETN (NYSE Arca: ADZ)
- DB Agriculture Double Short ETN (NYSE Arca: AGA)
The ELEMENTS Rogers International
Commodity Agriculture ETN (AMEX: RJA) represents a
basket of 20 agricultural commodity futures contracts and tracks a subindex of
the Rogers International Commodity Index. Components are weighted by global
consumption and liquidity. About 54% of RJA's underlying index weight is
attributed to wheat, corn, cotton and soybeans.
A Barclays Bank-issued note, the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Agriculture
Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE Arca: JJA), provides exposure to a
seven-commodity index comprised of wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean oil, coffee
and cotton. Wheat, corn and soybeans alone make up two-thirds of the underlying
index's weight.
The Opta Lehman Brothers Commodity Index Pure Beta Agriculture Total Return
Index is tracked by the Opta LBCI Agriculture Pure Beta Total Return ETN
(AMEX: EOH). The index is based upon eight commodities skewed heavily
(39% presently) toward soybean exposure. The other components include corn,
soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, coffee, cotton and sugar.
The UBS E-TRACS CMCI Agriculture Total Return ETN (NYSE Arca:
UAG) follows the performance of the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Agriculture
Index-Total Return, a basket of a dozen futures contracts including two grades
of wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, two grades of sugar, cocoa,
coffee and orange juice. Futures contracts are further diversified across three
maturities based on relative liquidity.
|
|
Ticker |
Assets/
Mkt. Cap.
($mm) |
Inception |
Expense/
Fee
(%) |
Avg.
Volume
(Daily) |
Avg.
Spread
(%) |
Downside
Variance
(%) |
Ann.
Volatility
(%) |
Return[1]
(%) |
|
DB Agriculture ETF |
DBA |
2,556.4 |
Jan-07 |
0.75 |
3,093,080 |
0.03 |
19.1 |
26.9 |
-7.9 |
|
DB Agriculture Double Short ETN |
AGA2 |
573.2 |
Apr-08 |
0.75 |
59,469 |
0.19 |
18.5 |
47.4 |
17.5 |
|
DB Agriculture Short ETN |
ADZ2 |
531.2 |
Apr-08 |
0.75 |
7,846 |
0.30 |
7.8 |
21.2 |
7.5 |
|
DB Agriculture Long ETN |
AGF |
473.2 |
Apr-08 |
0.75 |
4,571 |
0.17 |
15.5 |
17.8 |
-6.8 |
|
DB Agriculture Double Long ETN |
DAG |
430.6 |
Apr-08 |
0.75 |
29,357 |
0.37 |
38.1 |
56.9 |
-16.0 |
|
RICI Agriculture ETN |
RJA |
304.2 |
Oct-07 |
0.75 |
605,811 |
0.18 |
15.4 |
22.0 |
-6.9 |
|
DJ-AIG Agriculture ETN |
JJA |
138.1 |
Oct-07 |
0.75 |
98,286 |
0.24 |
17.0 |
26.0 |
-8.5 |
|
LBCI Agriculture Pure Beta ETN |
EOH |
4.6 |
Feb-08 |
0.85 |
3,853 |
0.11 |
18.6 |
27.5 |
-6.6 |
|
UBS CMCI Agriculture ETN |
UAG |
4.0 |
Feb-08 |
0.65 |
1,662 |
0.40 |
13.2 |
17.7 |
-7.6 |
1April 15-May 5, 2008
2Inverse product
The volume figures speak, well, volumes about investors' current
thinking. The recent bearish tone in the agriculture sector has attracted
investor interest in the short, and most particularly, the double short, notes.
There's yet another ETF in the agriculture space but, because it's based upon
a stock index rather than a commodity index, it's not directly comparable to the
securities we've just examined. That might not be such a bad thing, however,
After all, seven of the nine products listed have yielded an average negative
return of 8.6% over the past three weeks.
The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (AMEX: MOO) replicates
the 44-stock DAXglobal Agribusiness Index, a benchmark of companies engaged in
the production of foodstuffs, agricultural chemicals, farming equipment and
biofuels. Buoyed by a resurgent equity market, MOO's share price has only dipped
a half percent in the past three weeks.
Even counting the Market Vectors portfolio, the product tally for the
agriculture sector remains heavily skewed toward exchange-traded notes.
That's entirely consistent with S. J. Perlman's rather acerbic description of
agriculture's primary venue: "A farm is an irregular patch of nettles bounded by
short-term notes."