Virginia Republican Tom Davis has pretty much set forth reality for the Republican Party in November, and its not pretty. While there are some annoying typos reminiscent of some of my writing when I'm in a hurry to get something out there, the facts remain what they are, and they're not good.
Why the doom and gloom among Republicans? Let's look at some of the "internals" from this memo:
- Jobs and economic growth have emerged as the #1 issue, at 23%.
- Iraq is #2, with 18%
- Energy and fuel prices, at 16% (note how far up the ladder this one is)
- Health care (11%)
- Terrorism (8%)
- Immigration (8%)
- Environment (5%)
- Housing (3%) (that's an odd one)
Take #1 and 3 and you've got almost 50% of the electorate's "#1 issue".
But #1 and 3 are the same thing. Both are in fact caused by exactly what I have outlined repeatedly in The Ticker!
In fact, if you look at the last week's five tickers you will see that this theme and meme is right there in front of you. Start at the top at http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ and read down to "Credit Crunch Over - All Clear".
All of them.
This is not "my view." It is a compendium of reported news and lays out for anyone who gives a good damn the outright fraud that has become pervasive in our government and capital markets.
The Republican Party is not only complicit in this fraud they are egging it on at this point, desperate to see it continue through November lest it blow up in their face. Tom Davis is well-aware of this but he doesn't put that out in public in his paper, because should he sound the "siren call" the collapse may occur before the grenade can be passed.
What Tom Davis should understand is this:
The Republicans have no winning position that can be formed from trying to placate people with "happy talk" instead of facing reality. The economic impact of this fraud is going to happen and happy talk will not change the outcome.
If McCain wins (which I seriously doubt) then he will preside over the blast and that will be the end of The Republican party.
If Obama wins the blast will occur in early '09 as the current administration will stop being able to act when the July recess comes along, yet Obama won't have done anything yet before it all comes apart. The Republicans will still get the lion's share of the blame and be a minority party for 40 years, just like they were before the Gingrich Revolution.
If the economy and markets totally come apart before the election (the most likely outcome) then The Republicans are doomed as we will have a filibuster-proof Senate with certainty.
