logo
  Join        Login             Stock Quote

Things That Will Not Happen this Year

 May 19, 2008 02:45 PM


Macro Man doesn't do predictions or forecasts. He does, however, do non-predictions, and at the last year wrote down a list of stuff that he thought would not happen this year. Given that he is in an introspective mood, now seems as good a time as any to mark his views to market as he tries to determine how he's gonna make money for the rest of the year.


1) Oil will NOT rise 60% in calendar year 2008, or 100% peak-to-trough during the year. Oh dear. In retrospect, Macro Man underestimated the degree to which the three axioms and the dollar down bubble would drive commodity prices, and overestimated the degree to which US consumer demand destruction would cap energy prices. While oil has not yet rallied 60% this year, it is on pace to do so. By any possible criterion, this has to be called a MISS.

2) VIX will NOT hit single digits again.
The first month of the year, this looked like a dead cert to be right. However, since March equities have ground higher, sending VIX deep into value territory for those who believe that the world financial system and economy are not out of the woods yet. All Macro Man knows is that every single option/option strategy that he has purchased since Easter has finished out of the money. Ugh. For now, the JURY IS STILL OUT on this call, though a grind to 1500 would likely render it a miss.

3) Inflation will NOT die as a macroeconomic issue. Food riots. A hawkish ECB. 15 year high CPIs across Asia. Some US inflation measures at their highest point in more than a quarter century (the chart below shows the average 1 year Michigan inflation reading alluded to in the weekend special.) This can only be called a HIT.

4) China will NOT step-reval the RMB.

Next Page >>123
iOnTheMarket Premium
Advertisement

Advertisement


Comments Closed


rss feed

Latest Stories

article imageMBIA Inc. (MBI) : BTI's $12 a Tough Task

MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) is doing well on a day stocks are struggling The guarantee insurance company is the read on...

article imageUrban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) Q2 Earnings Preview: A Snug Fit

Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) will hold a webcast to discuss its second quarter of fiscal-year 2015 read on...

article imageEstee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Q4 Earnings Preview: Options Player Betting On EL’s EPS Looking Pretty

Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) will release fiscal 2014 fourth quarter and full year financial read on...

article imageHerbalife Ltd. (HLF): 3 Reasons To Pay Attention to Recent Insider Buying

Well, well, well… it looks as if boardroom buyers viewed the recent selloff as an opportunity to buy. read on...

Advertisement
Popular Articles

Advertisement
Daily Sector Scan
Partner Center



Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, and Commentary, news and Press Releases provided by YellowBrix and Quotemedia.
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. iStockAnalyst.com is not an investment adviser and does not provide, endorse or review any information or data contained herein.
The blog articles are opinions by respective blogger. By using this site you are agreeing to terms and conditions posted on respective bloggers' website.
The postings/comments on the site may or may not be from reliable sources. Neither iStockAnalyst nor any of its independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You are solely responsible for the investment decisions made by you and the consequences resulting therefrom. By accessing the iStockAnalyst.com site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
The sector scan is based on 15-30 minutes delayed data. The Pattern scan is based on EOD data.