Crude oil is grabbing the headlines but it’s coal and uranium that together
provide nearly half the world’s power.
So it follows that as worldwide demand for electricity skyrockets - as it
will - the shares of companies that provide these two key fuels also will take
flight.
And they make for almost-perfect partners.
That’s because coal represents the world’s short-term solution to the problem
of a rapidly climbing global demand for power. It’s plentiful, it’s cheaper than
other available alternatives, and a big percentage of the world’s power plants
are set up to burn this fossil fuel.
Uranium, on the other hand, represents the long-term solution to potential
fuel shortages - and it offers a solution to global warming, to boot.
Uranium-powered commercial nuclear plants are cheap to operate, can run a long
time, and when operated correctly cause little pollution.
The New ‘Black Gold’
India, a growing economic and industrial power, relies on coal for nearly 70%
of its total energy supply. And the World Coal Institute expects India’s energy consumption to rise
by as much as 8% to 10% annually through 2020.
Coal also is used to satisfy the Red Dragon’s energy appetite, providing 78%
of China’s total power needs. Coal demand in China jumped nearly 9% last year -
meaning the Eastern power now accounts for a full quarter of the world’s annual
coal consumption, The Wall Street
Journal reported.
Five years ago, China exported 83 million metric tons more coal than it
imported. But last year, the nation’s surplus dropped to a meager 2 million
metric tons. That means more than 80 million metric tons of coal (about 12% of
the internationally traded market) has been taken out
of global circulation.
Vic Svec, a senior executive at Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), the
world’s largest private-sector coal producer, referred to China’s ability to
influence the price of commodities as a "butterfly
effect." In other words, Svec told The Journal,
"demand from Beijing can ripple back to Queensland, Australia, or
Gillette, Wyoming."
Svec’s right. China’s recent development is part of the reason the highly
desirable low-sulfur coal from the coal-laden Powder River
Basin in Wyoming and Montana has climbed from less than $10 a ton last year,
to nearly $15 a ton - a price gain of 50%.
Central Appalachian coal, the benchmark grade widely used by power plants,
jumped from $40 a ton in early 2007, to nearly $90 a ton now, according to a
recent report by the Associated Press. That’s price
increase of 125% in just a single year.
Meanwhile, the weekly index for power station coal prices at Australia’s
Newcastle port, a benchmark for the Asian market, averaged $126.45 per metric
ton in the month of April, up nearly 40% from January. The port’s weekly price
index rose to $133.63 per metric ton for the week ended May 9 - an 11-week high
according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index. The index is up approximately 49% this
year.
According to
the Energy Information Administration, world coal consumption could expand
by 74% from 2004 to 2030. And that will only drive prices higher.
While demand for coal is at an all-time high, the same can’t be said for coal
supplies. Harsh weather conditions and infrastructure constraints in
coal-producing regions have severely crimped supplies.
In South Africa, power shortages and flooding have closed down several key
mines. With such setbacks, the price of coal coming out of South
Africa’s Richards Bay Coal
Terminal, the world’s largest, jumped nearly 90% last year.
Xstrata
PLC, the world’s biggest exporter of power-station coal, said that first-quarter coal output fell 3.6% after floods and
rain delays diminished supplies from Australian mines. Monsoon rains throughout
the region also impacted archrivals Rio Tinto PLC (RTP),
and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP).
Meanwhile, China, a leading producer and consumer, was devastated just a few
months ago by the worst blizzard of the past half-century. Three weeks of
snowfall killed at least 60 people and cost the country approximately $7.5
billion.