Since we have a break in the action here, instead of doing our normal best performing stocks of the week (not many made the list this week due to a poor market), this is a good time to look at what is performing best so far this year. Further, due the composition of the list and with many of these stocks due for a correction it's probably worthwhile to take a look now, as things might change relatively soon. We looked at a similar list in early November (
Nov 4: How to Make 75% in 3 Months) when the list was dominated by large cap Chinese stocks, a few big cap tech stocks, Indian stocks, and fertilizer. Except for fertilizer most of those groups stunk for the better part of the following 5 months, and hence "returned to the mean". However, the list did turn out a few gems we jumped on, so looking at such lists helps us to identify what has been working and what other people are interested in that we might be missing.
Frankly, as I look through this list I feel very content with our stock selections over the past 5 months - we
own 3 of the top 12. I've also said a few times
coal would be the next fertilizer (as the next "big investing theme") but you never can time these things exactly and while I thought it would play out in latter 2008 or early 2009, the trend is already here -
4 of the top 5 names year to date are coal stocks.
A few other key sectors have been ... well, anything energy related, especially natural gas and land drillers (who had been previously missing out on the entire energy rally due to overcapacity)... Brazil also dominated, as did steel (iron ore and metallurgical coal being offshoots of steel). Lower in this entry, I've highlighted some posts on some of the individual companies or sectors at the top of the list, as we've been talking about them for quite a while.
As always the criteria for this list are
- Market capitalization $2 Billion+
- Average trading volume 100K+
- Stock price $10+
And added to those criteria I've listed every stock returning 25%+ year to date - the list is
122 stocks long.
We own 17 of them; considering we generally only hold 50-55 long positions, this means
roughly a third of our positions made the list. I'll take that all year, every year. (please note some stocks we bought during calender 2008 so we have not enjoyed the full gain listed below - however many we bought during the panic of March 2008 - i.e. the "Bear Stearns bottom" so we might have gotten even better prices than if we had bought on Jan 1, 2008)
Green shaded are names we've owned during calendar 2008, and
blue are names we've discussed, or in some cases readers have mentioned (i.e. hey TraderMark you fertilizer lover - why don't you buy SQM!). Keep in mind I don't discuss every stock in every sector i.e. there are a good 9-10 coal stocks out there, I tend to discuss 4-5 on a normal basis; same for natural gas or energy/exploration companies. Same with the countless "energy" names.
What' missing? Despite all the hubbub about the "bottom is in financials - if you don't buy you're going to miss the huge move!!" - not one single financial made the list (unless you consider
Mastercard a "financial") - only 3 retailers made the list - two of which that thrive on the
pooring of America -
Big Lots &
Dollar Tree, and most homebuilders at this point have lost so much market capitalization (size) they no longer even qualify for such a list. So "bottom fishing" is not in fashion despite all the cries from the pundits that you should be doing it. A lot of fingers have been sliced off trying to "catch knives".
Here are some highlights if you are new to the blog and did not see when we discussed some specific names at the top of the list. I just picked a representative sample for each - most aside from WLT, and CMP have been discussed numerous times. Again, I still like all these groups for the LONG run; but think they are very overdue for a correction in the near term. If you are ever interested in reading up on all posts on a topic/stock, on the right margin of the blog is a "label cloud" - I label each entry with a specific topic - so if you click on said label you will pull up all historical posts for that company, sector, or theme (i.e. inflation, economy) etc.
- Walter Industries (WLT) (May 1: Walter Industries - the Most Amazing Company)
- Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) (Apr 8: Changing Coal Allocation - Peabody Energy Out, Alpha Natural Resources In)
- Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) & Vale (RIO) (Mar 7: Starting 2 Mining Positions Emphasizing Iron Ore)
- Compass Minerals Int'l (CMP) (Mar 3: Who Knew? Salt?)
- Natural Gas (Feb 11: An Interesting Development in Natural Gas)
- Mechel (MTL) (Nov 5: Two New Foreign Positions Added Today)
- Sohu.com (SOHU) (Dec 5: Sohu.com Raises Guidance)
- Brazil (May 16: Brazil is Sexy)
| Symbol | Company Name | % Price YTD |
| WLT | Walter Industry Ord Shs | 147.1 |
| CLR | Continental Resources Ord Shs | 128.2 |
| PCX | Patriot Coal Corp | 126.4 |
| ANR | Alpha Natural Resources Inc | 125.6 |
| FDG | FORDING INC | 104.7 |
| SATS | EchoStar Corp | 101.8 |
| EAC | Encore Acquisition Co | 98.9 |
| SQM | Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile | 90.0 |
| CLF | Cleveland Cliffs Ord Shs | 86.0 |
| WTI | W&T Offshore Inc | 81.2 |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Trust | 75.1 |
| MEE | Massey Energy Co | 73.4 |
| CMP | Compass Minerals International Inc | 72.9 |
| GGB | Gerdau SA Depository Receipt | 69.6 |
| BIG | Big Lots Inc | 68.3 |
| MLNM | Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc | 66.7 |
| OIS | Oil States International Inc | 66.0 |
| SID | Companhia Siderurgica Nacional | 65.7 |
| ENER | Energy Conversion Devices Inc | 64.4 |
| WLL | Whiting Petroleum Corp | 63.0 |
| XEC | Cimarex Energy Co | 62.7 |
| SWN | Southwestern Energy Co | 61.7 |
| CPX | Complete Production Services Inc | 61.3 |
| PTEN | Patterson-UTI Energy Inc | 60.3 |
| UNT | Unit Corp | 59.9 |
| CRK | Comstock Resources Inc | 57.5 |
| CXO | Concho Resources Inc | 56.8 |
| SPN | Superior Energy Services Inc | 52.7 |
| MTL | Mechel ADR Rep 3 Ord Shs | 51.9 |
| CSX | CSX Corp | 51.7 |
| HK | Petrohawk Energy Corp | 51.4 |
| NBR | Nabors Industries Ltd | 51.2 |
| EOG | EOG Resources Inc | 51.2 |
| GDI | Gardner Denver Inc | 51.0 |
| HP | Helmerich & Payne Inc | 49.8 |
| R | Ryder System Inc | 49.6 |
| COG | Cabot Oil & Gas Corp | 49.0 |
| WHQ | W-H Energy Services Inc | 48.9 |
| BAY | Bayer ADR Rep 1 Ord Shs | 48.9 |
| XCO | EXCO Resources Inc | 48.3 |
| ME | Mariner Energy Ord Shs | 48.3 |
| HERO | Hercules Offshore Inc | 47.1 |
| TTWO | Take-Two Interactive Software Inc | 45.9 |
| AKS | AK Steel Holding Corp | 45.5 |
| DRS | DRS Technologies Inc | 44.6 |
| PXD | Pioneer Natural Resources Co | 44.6 |
| X | United States Steel Corp | 42.4 |
| SD | SandRidge Energy Ord Shs | 41.5 |
| GTI | GrafTech International Ltd | 41.4 |
| TCK | Teck Cominco Ord Shs Class B | 40.8 |
| SOHU | Sohu.com Inc | 40.7 |
| ACI | Arch Coal Ord Shs | 40.0 |
| CENX | Century Aluminum Co | 39.6 |
| CNQ | CDN Natural Resource Ord Shs | 39.1 |
| SCHN | Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc | 38.8 |
| ROST | Ross Stores Inc | 38.3 |
| PEGFF | Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp | 37.9 |
| ECA | ENCANA CORP | 37.3 |
| SDA | Sadia ADR Rep 3 Pref Shs | 37.1 |
| STO | StatoilHydro ADR Rep 1 Ord Shs | 36.6 |
| POT | Potash Corp | 36.4 |
| TRN | Trinity Industries Inc | 36.1 |
| PXP | Plains Exploration & Production Co | 36.1 |
| TS | Tenaris ADR | 35.8 |
| ATN | Atlas Energy Resources LLC | 35.3 |
| FLS | Flowserve Corp | 35.3 |
| UMBF | UMB Financial Corp | 35.2 |
| EQT | Equitable Resources Inc | 35.0 |
| DBD | Diebold Inc | 34.9 |
| KSU | Kansas City Sthn Ord Shs | 34.9 |
| CXG | CNX Gas Ord Shs | 34.6 |
| FRO | Frontline Ord Shs | 34.3 |
| HAS | Hasbro Inc | 34.1 |
| CNX | CONSOL Energy Inc | 34.1 |
| CHK | Chesapeake Energy Ord Shs | 34.1 |
| RRC | Range Resources Corp | 33.8 |
| DVN | Devon Energy Ord Shs | 33.5 |
| WRC | Warnaco Group Inc | 33.3 |
| FTI | FMC Technologies Inc | 33.3 |
| CPS | ChoicePoint Inc | 33.0 |
| BUCY | Bucyrus International Inc | 33.0 |
| COSWF | Canadian Oil Sands Trust | 32.8 |
| PDE | Pride International Inc | 32.5 |
| WWY | WM Wrigley Jr Ord Shs | 32.0 |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Ord Shs | 31.9 |
| BBL | BHP Billiton ADR | 31.7 |
| NAVZ | Navistar International Ord Shs | 31.5 |
| WAB | Wabtec Corp | 31.2 |
| CFFN | Capitol Federal Financial | 31.0 |
| PWE | Penn West Energy Trust Units | 30.8 |
| SU | SUNCOR ENERGY INC | 30.8 |
| LEAP | Leap Wireless International Inc | 30.6 |
| SSL | Sasol Level II ADR | 30.2 |
| SM | St Mary Land & Exploration Co | 29.9 |
| HXM | Desarrolladora Homex DR | 29.9 |
| APA | Apache Corp Ord Shs | 29.6 |
| MT | ArcelorMittal ADR | 29.1 |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas Co | 28.9 |
| BBG | Bill Barrett Corp | 28.6 |
| FST | Forest Oil Corp | 28.6 |
| OC | Owens Corning | 28.5 |
| GMT | GATX Corp Ord Shs | 28.3 |
| FLR | Fluor Corp | 28.2 |
| SYMC | Symantec Corp | 28.0 |
| BHP | BHP Billiton ADR | 27.8 |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree Inc | 27.6 |
| BNI | Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp | 27.5 |
| CELG | Celgene Corp | 27.4 |
| MOS | Mosaic Co | 27.1 |
| TNE | Tele Norte Leste ADR Reptg 1 Pref Shs | 27.0 |
| MA | MasterCard Inc | 27.0 |
| FMC | FMC Corp | 26.6 |
| TLM | Talisman Energy Ord Shs | 26.6 |
| TER | Teradyne Inc | 26.5 |
| WW | Watson Wyatt Worldwide Inc | 26.4 |
| HAL | Halliburton Ord Shs | 26.0 |
| VMI | Valmont Industries Inc | 25.6 |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro ADR Reptg 2 Ord Shs | 25.6 |
| MSM | MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc | 25.5 |
| KWK | Quicksilver Resources Inc | 25.5 |
| RIO | Companhia Vale Do Rio Docea | 25.5 |
| CPO | Corn Products International Inc | 25.4 |
