Stocks scored their third straight session of gains since recovering from
last week's sell-off, but several key resistance levels caused the major indices
to surrender nearly half of the day's gains in the late afternoon. After
trending higher throughout most of the day, then pulling back in the final
ninety minutes, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9%, the S&P 500 0.5%, and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 again showed a bit
of relative strength by climbing 1.0%, but the S&P Midcap 400 lagged behind
by closing just 0.3% higher. All the main stock market indexes finished near the
middle of their intraday ranges, essentially putting the bulls and bears on
parity into the close.
Turnover crept higher across the board. Total volume in the NYSE was 3%
greater than the prior day's level, while volume in the Nasdaq picked up 6%.
Although it was the second day of increased trading activity in the broad
market, volume in both exchanges remained below average levels for the fifth
straight day. As with the previous day's session, stocks again climbed on
mediocre market internals. Advancing volume in the NYSE exceeded declining
volume by a margin of only 3 to 2. The Nasdaq adv/dec volume ratio was positive
by just over 2 to 1.
For those of you long any of the numerous oil-related ETFs, the sector
flashed some very important warning signs yesterday that a top may be forming in
the near future. First was the intraday price action of the crude oil commodity,
which is demonstrated on the 15-minute intraday chart of the U.S. Oil Fund
(USO), an ETF proxy that roughly follows the price of crude:
After opening 1.4% lower than the previous day's close, USO quickly reversed
its opening weakness and rocketed higher as the government said crude inventory
had dropped to its lowest levels since 2004 during its 10:30 am ET weekly report
of crude oil reserves. This bullish news for crude oil should have had an
overly positive effect on its price action throughout the rest of the day.
Instead, however, traders aggressively sold into strength of the knee-jerk
reaction, causing crude to drop back down to its opening level just one hour
later. The heavy selling continued into the afternoon, eventually leading both
the crude oil commodity and USO to close the session with a 3.4% loss. When a
steadily uptrending stock or commodity drops sharply in the face of positive
news, as crude oil did yesterday, it is often a warning sign of exhaustion.
Conversely, it's typically a bullish sign when traders ignore negative market
news and send a stock or commodity higher regardless of bad news.