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The Reality of Zero
By: Capital Spectator   Friday, May 30, 2008 5:25 PM

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You can slice it, you can dice it. You can even massage it and look on the bright side. But you still can't get blood out of a stone or, it seems, inflation-adjusted increases in consumer spending.

Real personal consumption expenditures were flat in April, down from a slight 0.1% increase in March, the government reported today. Meanwhile, as our chart below shows, the longer-term trend isn't inspiring.

Looking at the three major components of consumer spending--durable goods, nondurable goods and services--doesn't inspire either. As the second chart below reminds, inflation-adjusted spending looks tired by several measures.

At least there's no mystery as to what ails Joe Sixpack's spending habits. Higher energy and food costs, a general if still modest rise in overall inflation, and housing and job stress are collectively taking their toll.

That leads to the question of whether the stress testing has legs? By this editor's reckoning, there's good news and bad news. The good news: the economic slump may not deteriorate into a full-blown recession. Yesterday's modest upgrade of Q1 GDP's growth is one clue. The bad news: the "recovery," when it comes, won't seem much like a recovery.

Why? We'll discuss this in more detail in future posts. For now, we'll simply say that the economic chickens are returning home and they're of a mind to roost.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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