In my post
Slowly Building Shorts I wrote: "I did the same for Lehman Brothers (LEH). I expect the $50 area and the 50 day EMA to provide resistance. LEH is no longer oversold and the same problems, namely expanding Level 3 assets, remain. I expect an initial move into the $38 - $40 area."
Unfortunately I covered my position at my original target of $38 - $40 and have missed this last swipe down. LEH has now broken all support and could quickly and easily spiral out of control...
The open interest in LEH puts is absolutely massive, especially at strikes that would only pay off if LEH completely imploded (a la Bear Stearns). Either some idiots are going to be out a lot of money come June, July and October... or LEH implodes before then...
The open interest is absolutely massive and can only pay off if LEH collapses. Most of the open interest is at sub $35 levels... a level that LEH has now breached. A lot of the puts at the 'bankruptcy' strikes (say anything below $15) also expires in June. So either the put buyers or LEH are quickly running out of time.
Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Lehman Ratings Cut by S&P (Update3): " Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declined in New York trading after Standard & Poor's lowered credit ratings for the investment banks, saying they may have to book more writedowns on devalued assets.
Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value, was cut one level to A+ from AA-, S&P said today in a report. Merrill Lynch, the third-biggest, was also cut one level to A from A+, as was Lehman Brothers, the fourth-biggest. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the largest of the group, was affirmed at AA-. The outlook on all four New York-based companies remains negative, S&P said.
The downgrades may make it harder for the banks to sell derivatives such as credit-default swaps that are tied to bonds or loans, said Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in New York. Single-A rated firms are less desirable as trading counterparties for fixed-income derivatives that extend longer than five years, he said."
I say, about time on them there downgrades. I would also like to refer you back to my list of companies with the largest pile of Level 3 assets:
Bulltrap: ABCP and Level 3 Bombs.
Yes, just like Bear Stearns, Lehman could implode literally overnight. Enough people think so to have sunk a good deal of money into puts. Open interest has absolutely ballooned. Mind you, the same thing occurred with Bear Stearns options just prior to their implosion. At the time I wrote
Bear Stearns is Dead, Lehman is Probably Next.
Will Lehman implode? I don't know. I can't tell... I just don't have enough information. The rumors continue to make their rounds and traders are definitely nervous.
