We've discussed many
of these issues here in the blog... but a good comprehensive review in 1
story can be found in today's AP story. Oil has finally hit the point where its
turned into an exorbitant tax on all things in the global economy.
As the consumer of 25% of the world's energy (with 5% of the population) this is
one matter when American habits do still have a major effect. Consumers are
burrowing into their homes (who ever heard of the term staycatation until about a month ago? Now I
hear about it daily) - $4 gas literally forces certain parts of US population to
be hostage to their homes or surrounding neighborhoods.
- Oil prices dropped below $124 a barrel Wednesday and after Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke
signaled that inflation had become a more prominent concern. "The stars for a
significant correction in crude oil are lining up," U.S. analyst and trader
Stephen Schork said
in a research note.
- The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast several
quarters of weak growth for most of its 30 members, which include the U.S.,
Japan, and several European countries, and on Wednesday cut its economic growth
outlook through next year.
- Evidence continues to mount that oil prices, nearly twice what
they were a year ago, have finally cut into demand.
- The latest MasterCard SpendingPulse survey found that demand for gasoline in the U.S.,
by far the world's biggest oil consumer, fell by 4.7 percent last week -- which
included the long Memorial Day holiday weekend -- compared to the same week last
year. Averaged over
the last four weeks, demand fell 6 percent last week.
- The decision by some
countries in Asia to lower subsidies on oil products also was seen as having a
bearish effect on the market. On Wednesday, India and Malaysia joined a
growing list of countries which are raising prices for fuels ranging from
gasoline to cooking gas. (we started discussing this 2
weeks ago when oil was spiking, as a major risk factor)
- India announced
increases which would boost gasoline prices in New Delhi, its capital, by 11
percent. Malaysia
said it would hike gasoline prices by 40 percent and electricity for commercial
and industrial users by 26 percent.
- Indonesia and
Taiwan were among nations recently to take similar steps. (and now demand destruction can begin to happen in
these countries, along with all the other Asian entities ex-China)
- "Investors are ... wondering if we've got to the point, with prices around $130 a barrel,
if that's too much for consumers to bear," said Rachel Ziemba, an analyst
at RGEMonitor.com in New York.
In the end, the problem of high prices
is solved by 1 thing: high prices. Demand destruction 101. Now that markets are
allowed to be "more free" (most Asian economies are still nowhere near truly
free), we will begin to see reality set in. But again, this is a timing issue -
demographic growth and
industrialization
still point to many longer term demand issues - this will be a series of spikes
and valleys along an ever upward slope in energy usage. Until alternatives
become a meaningful part of the global system (>15%) we should continue to
have these problems; and they will be a tax on global growth. I don't see this
threshold of alternative energy usage being breached for about a decade or so,
based on current information. Hopefully it comes much sooner, so we are not
"hostage" to our lack of planning as a nation/globe.

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