With a wheezing economy that’s struggling with housing and credit problems -
as well as a weak dollar - it’s clear the United States won’t be in the
investment spotlight this year.
But don’t despair. Because a trend that has long been talked about - economic
decoupling - is finally starting to manifest itself as other world economies,
particularly the so-called “BRIC” markets of Brazil, Russia, China and India,
have continued to grow even as the U.S. economy has slowed. That means profit
opportunities abound for U.S. investors, despite myriad messes on the home front
that include a collapsed housing market, a mortgage crisis that turned into a
five-alarm credit conflagration, and a plunging greenback that seems to have
left its parachute on the airplane that it jumped from.
Some of the profit pathways to play:
- Investors can eschew the U.S. market completely, and pursue profits abroad.
- They can latch onto the U.S.-based members of the “Global Titans” club,
companies with their headquarters in America that derive a hefty chunk of their
profits from overseas markets.
- Or investors can ferret out U.S. investments that are either immune to some
of this country’s current economic afflictions, or that are problem-plagued now,
but a good bet for a turnaround later.
A Year to Forget?
Like a Dickens’ novel, 2007 was a definite “Best of Times/Worst of Times”
combination for the U.S. economy. Volatility and crisis were the watchwords for
much of the year. After key stock indices reached record highs in the middle of
the year, the explosive emergence of the subprime mortgage debacle and related
credit crunch pushed share prices into a nosedive that steepened as the year
progressed.
With a 0.6% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter
of 2007 and a first quarter that’s supposed to be flat at best, it’s clear that
we’re not out of the woods, yet. Many fear that 2008 will find the United
States in a recession. Other investors believe we have already experienced the
first elements of a recessionary contraction.
“If I had to be bold, I’d say we began a recession in December," Bill Gross,
manager of the PIMCO Total Return Fund (PTTAX), told the Financial Times in a
recent interview.
The Homeowner Blues
As 2007 progressed, many Americans experienced a growing despair as they
watched their largest asset - the family home - experience a significant value
decline. The United States is experiencing its worst housing recession in more
than 15 years. And that domicile downturn is far from over. Consumers are being
forced to watch as the housing slump siphons off the equity they’ve built up,
even as it shaves the market value of their homes. Consumers with marginal
credit who’d signed up for adjustable-rate loans have seen their mortgage rates
“reset,” and then had to watch as their monthly mortgage payment ballooned to
the point that they could no longer afford those payments.
For many, unfortunately, refinancing hasn’t been an option. The vanishing
homeowners’ equity made such deals unfavorable to lenders. And with the
burgeoning credit crisis that quickly became global in nature, banks and
mortgage firms have slashed the available amount of refinancing loans that
homeowners needed to escape their soaring mortgage payments.
Soon, the banks that had made the questionable calls on subprime loans were
in trouble, too. With the housing market cooling, the homeowners who couldn’t
refinance also discovered that they couldn’t sell. Homeowner defaults - loans
that are 30 days or more past due - soared and started a firestorm that has
swept through the global financial-services sector, singing such stalwarts as
Citigroup Inc. (C), Fannie Mae (FNM), UBS
AG (UBS), and others.
"It will take most of the year to work out of the housing slowdown.
Currently, the inventory of unsold homes is at an eight to nine-month level. We
have to get this down to a more normal level of four to five months. In order to
get to this level, housing starts will remain low," Dr. Robert Sweet, an
economist at MTB Investment Advisors, the investment-advisory subsidiary of
M&T Bank Corp. (MTB), said in an interview with Money
Morning.
And we might be getting closer to the bottom. In fact, existing home sales
rose in February, the first such increase in the past seven months. But it’s
probably too soon to get excited about a full housing recovery.
“It looks like this may be a temporary pause,” Nigel Gault, chief U.S.