XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) - SIRIUS Satellite Radio (SIRI)

FCC Commissioner Kevin Martin has publicly disclosed that the companies have agreed to unspecified conditions with respect to this transaction. However, Mr. Martin has not indicated if the conditions agreed upon are final with respect to the pending FCC review, or if the other voting Commissioners are currently considering a final decision based on these conditions. Furthermore, Mr. Martin has declined once again to offer any definitive time frame for the final decision issuance.

Naturally, this must be perceived as a positive develop in terms of the FCC process in general, but by no means do Mr. Martin's comments eliminate the uncertainty of additional concessions being demanded by the voting Commissioners or further delays in the review process. Furthermore, the perception that the FCC review may indeed be nearing a decision will likely prompt a flurry of intervenor activity, such as witnessed yesterday in U.S. Electronics attempts to have confidential documents released regarding the companies' past FCC dealings. This sort of effort will likely increase over the next several days as third-parties attempt to influence the final decision to their respective benefits.

In short, it appears that at least Commissioner Martin is intent of reaching a final decision before the end of this month. Whether his status as head of the FCC will facilitate this remains tenuous, particularly if one or more of the other four Commissioners remains dissatisfied with the approval conditions. Although a highly conditional approval remains the most likely outcome (+/-70%), there is clearly still a solid chance that the FCC review will continue into July and/or end with the companies refusing to accept all concessions required by the regulator (+/- 25%). Outright rejection of the license transfer is currently perceived at less than a 5% chance.

BCE, Inc. (BCE) - Teachers Private Capital

It is not often that is publication refers directly to an unknown analytic/op-ed piece as part of deal coverage. However, this article published on June 2 provides an exceptional overview of the pending Supreme Court case, including a relevant precedent for this case which has been somewhat elusive to this point. The article states the following:

"The leading precedent is Peoples Department Stores v. Wise, a decision of the Supreme Court, much anticipated on its release in October 2004.

"In general terms, the court found in Peoples that directors and officers do not owe a fiduciary duty to creditors of a corporation, even when it is insolvent or on the verge of insolvency. That got the Wise brothers off the hook in Peoples.

"But the BCE defendants may not be so lucky. In fact, the Supreme Court left wide open the possibility of creditors and other stakeholders, like the BCE bondholders, asserting claims based on the oppression remedy and the duty of care that exists in the Canada Business Corporations Act.

"My guess is that it's a toss-up, but that in the end, the SCC won't have the guts to spill the blood of the largest deal Canada has ever seen."

The final passage, of course, basically echoes the opinion of this publication that the Supreme Court is marginally more likely to side with the companies in this case, despite the Court of Appeal ruling.

In a situation such as this, there is truly very little substantive information available in which to offer a highly confident prediction. That much has been clear throughout the legal processes in this deal. The article cited above offers a very helpful perspective on the upcoming Supreme Court proceedings and reflects this publication's overall assessment of the case. Although this is truly a "toss-up" scenario, it is currently believed BCE will ultimately prevail at the final legal obstacle.

Frontier Pacific Mining Corp (FRP) - Eldorado Gold Corp (ELD)

Eldorado issued the following response earlier today to Frontier Pacific's offer rejection on May 27:

"Eldorado notes that Frontier has failed to adequately respond to, or address, the many benefits that Frontier shareholders stand to gain from a combination with Eldorado. Eldorado also believes that no new material information concerning Frontier has been disclosed in the Directors' Circular, or related press releases and filings, that is either: (i) meaningful technical data which has been prepared by or under the supervision of a "qualified person" and is supported by a substantive and appropriate technical report; or (ii) not already publicly known and inherent in Frontier's share price. Accordingly, nothing has been provided by Frontier that would change Eldorado's view that its Offer is full and fair."

Regarding the Perama Hill project, Eldorado states the following:

"Eldorado's discovery during the course of its due diligence in Greece of two active petitions launched by local municipalities for the annulment of the pre-approval act issued by the Greek Ministry of Public Works, Town Planning and Environment in respect of the Perama Hill project. The petitions were commenced in the Counseil d'Etat, the Supreme Administrative Court of Greece. If the petitions are granted, it could set the permitting process for Perama Hill back to where it stood in 2000 and require, among other regulatory work, the issuance of a new preliminary site plan for Perama Hill and the filing of a new environmental impact study on Perama Hill.