The market ended on a down note last week, as oil spiked up above $139/barrel. On Friday, the Dow was down 394.64 points; SPX lost 43.47 points; and Nasdaq tumbled 75.38 points. Just the day before, on Thursday, the Dow was up +213.97 points, with SPX adding +26.85 points and Nasdaq gaining +46.80 points! The market has been seeing some big mood swings!

Two weekends ago, in my Market Forecast on 5/26, I said, “…we could see one last burst in USO before it finds the near-term top.” And, here it is!! So, is oil now close to a near-term top, and how will the market respond if it is? Let’s take a closer look at the overall market and some individual sectors.

SPX

SPX lost 43.47 points to close at 1360.68. It caught the daily lower BB and the MACD went lower.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq tumbled 75.38 points to close at 2474.56. It closed at the 30-day MA. Its MACD slid.

The market is again in a dangerous spot. SPX is threatening to start a new bearish formation while Nasdaq is being supported by its 30-day MA. SPX looks to be testing its supporting range of 1350-1360. It has broken below the 1375 support. Oil has just spiked up, but, I do believe that the near-term top is close. This could be the “one last burst” that I was looking for 2 weeks ago. A lot of times, when “seasons change” (money rotation happens), the market goes through wild swings. For the new week, we’ll still tread waters carefully and see how the market does early in the week. If the market rebounds, we should see the market try to establish a trading range. If the market continues to slide, we’ll have to be ready to play the down side.