Van Knapp's Take On Microsoft
Continuing our
recent look at why Microsoft has grown its business but not its stock price under Steve Ballmer's leadership, here's an installment from Dave Van Knapp of
SensibleStocks.com:
After I read your article on Ballmer, and your readers' responses to it, I looked up MSFT's numbers...revenue growth, profit growth, P/E, all the usual stuff. Blended together, they seem to make a case for SCREAMING BUY! But then, as I always do, I asked, "How's it doing?" And you had already answered that: MSFT has been dead money for eight years or so.
You personalized that with Ballmer's tenure, concluding "no innovation, no growth, and Google's eating their lunch." But MSFT's growth numbers don't lie, there has been strong growth. However, as you pointed out yesterday, the P/E has shrunk, with the net result that the stock price is about the same as it was eight years ago.
I'd like to offer some points that have been overlooked in the discussion so far:- When MSFT was growing as fast as Google is now, let's not forget that they were cheating. I'm not referring to taking others' ideas and marketing them better, that's not cheating. No, they were breaking antitrust laws left and right. They made an art form of anticompetitive practices. They have been convicted by the U.S. government, several states, and Europe. I think (after years) they finally have settled everything on this side of the Atlantic, but I believe they may still be trying to settle a few charges in Europe. That's how they built their huge moat. As long as a significant part of the game stays the same (i.e., business software), they are going to continue to grow, because they dominate that sector and are essentially impregnable within it.
- Their cheating -- along with some innovation, more copying, and great marketing -- gave them an essential monopoly in business software. Their operating system, Internet browser, and essential office products (like Word, Excel, and PowerPoint) all became industry standards. Except in a few niches such as graphic design and education, they completely swamped Apple. That gave them huge network-effect advantages. It doesn't matter that people don't line up overnight to buy Vista. What matters is that Vista is installed on all new PCs except Apple's.
- MSFT out-maneuvered Apple in another way, and it was brilliant: They made their systems available to all computer makers. Remember when "PC" meant only the personal computer made by IBM, and all others like it were called "clones"? That's because IBM hooked up with MSFT first. Apple (except for a brief flirtation) closed themselves up and did not allow clones. They insisted on forcing users to buy their computer if they wanted Apple's (superior) OS and other programs. Apple boxed themselves in for years with this fundamental strategic mistake.
I worked in huge companies, and there was never a question about buying Apple products.
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