I'm not sure I believe this.

Let's start with that which is market-based.

That's MF Global, a major futures clearing house.  There was an earnings warning out on them yesterday but that price action suggests something far more serious - like insolvency.  Down 40% in one day?  That's a bit more than a "warning", don't you think?

If they - and I stress that I know exactly nothing about the firm in terms of its financials - were to blow up, it could produce absolute chaos in the futures markets.  Many futures contracts are not covered by SIPC protection, among other problems.  Clearing firm bankruptcies are no laughing matter!

Now this may be a street overreaction, but if you remember there were rumors before that turned out to be a "rogue trader" type of event.  Now the stock is back to where it was then, all in one day.  Not good and until clarity is available you have to be cautious on this one.  How?  Good question - who clears your futures trades and how sound are they?

Point being, this is potential "black swan" #1.

President Bush has called for opening offshore drilling (its about damn time) but the response of the Democrats was frightening:

"House Democrats responded to President's Bush's call for Congress to lift the moratorium on offshore drilling.