In Today's Post:

1. Commodity Watch
2. Holdings Watch
3. Stocks We Care About Today - (SD), (HK), the refiners
4. Analyst Watch  

Commodity Watch:

• Crude Oil. Holy smokes, oil through $140 last week despite the Saudi's wet blanket party and a MEND "unilateral ceasefire". Blame a weak dollar if you want but growing fear on the Street is that the Saudi's simply don't have the spare capacity. This morning crude is up $1.50 to $2 having breached $143 in the early morning hours as tensions between the Israel (the U.S.) and Iran escalate.

• Iran Watch #1: The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to "impose control on the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz" if attacked and threatened neighbor states with reprisals if the cooperate in any U.S. or Israeli operations against Iran's nuclear facilities. Ah, summer in the Middle East.

• Iran Watch #2: Iranian oil production reached 4.23 mm bopd, it's highest level since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. They plan to take production to 4.28 mm bopd by year and with volumes like that, don't look for them to smoke a peace hookah anytime soon.

• Natural Gas closed up less than a percent at $13.19 last week as another sub par injection was recorded. Imports remained down nearly 3 Bcfgpd in the preceding week and I don't see any near term help from the LNG side of the equation which is 2/3rds of the YoY deficit.  This morning gas is trading up a dime plus with the rally in oil

• Weather Watch: Cooling degree days came in at 65 up from 54 in the prior and even with year ago levels when we saw an injection into storage of 84 Bcf. My early read having not yet seen imports would be for a similar number or slightly larger number to be released this Thursday. 
• Tropics Watch: Four tropical waves are making their way across the Atlantic but no near term development is expected.

Holdings Watch: I was up very slightly in my absence last week as I sat on a larger than normal cash and stock position (59% cash, 23% stocks, 18% long options).