Right around noon there was a huge high-volume sell off in Lehman. In addition
several other financials - including Fannie, Freddie and Wachovia - got
shellacked.
Why?
Look at MTG. Down 20%. AGO in the tank, etc.
Mortgage insurers. Shortly followed by bond insurers?
This is bad folks. Really bad. As in "you'll be fisted so hard that your
tonsils will get grabbed from underneath" bad.
Unfortunately its also what I have been predicting for quite some time - a
year or so - in this regard, going back to when the Radian deal was originally
announced.
MBIA said it has enough assets it can sell to meet its
collateral posting requirements:
"``MBIA is not in a `tenuous situation','' Chief Financial Officer C. Edward
Chaplin said today in a statement."
This time. The problem is that this is unlikely to be a one-time event, as
I've pointed out. Selling assets dilutes your capital ratios which means you
are subject to getting hit with another downgrade, which requires more
postings. This spiral, once it starts, is very difficult to get under
control.
Their claim is somewhat akin to the guy who falls out of an airplane minus a
chute and on the way down he remarks that its really not bad at all - in fact,
the breeze is refreshing and he needed to dry his hair anyway - it rained on him
while he was getting in the plane.
Of course he's not talking about the last 1/8"....