The explosive growth of the exchange-traded-products industry in the U.S.
over the past few years means that there's an exchange-traded fund or
exchange-traded note for just about anything.
Want to buy big U.S. stock indexes like the S&P 500 or the Russell 2000?
Try the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) or the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Interested
in foreign equities? You can buy developed markets (EFA), emerging markets (VWO)
or almost any country-specific index you want (Japan, China, Brazil, Russia,
etc.).
And it's not just stocks. You can buy bonds of all types - real estate,
currencies, commodities and other alternative assets. There are now more than
790 ETFs and ETNs on the market, and you can buy access to just about
anything.
Given such a wide array of products, examining the relative performance of
ETFs is an easy way to determine the relative performance of various asset
classes. With the first half of the year behind us, now's a good time to do just
that.
First Half 2008 In Review
We all know that the first half of 2008 was a brutal period for the equity
markets. The S&P 500 closed down more than 12%, and foreign stocks didn't do
much better - the MSCI EAFE Developed Markets Index was down nearly 11%, for
instance.
What was up? In a word: commodities.
Get this: If you exclude the so-called "inverse" ETFs - ETFs that are
designed to go up when the market goes down - the 39 top-performing ETFs over
the first six months of the year were ALL either commodity or natural resource
funds.
You have to go all the way down to #40 before you hit the CurrencyShares
Australian Dollar ETF (FXA), which posted a 12.33% return.
The table immediately below lists the top-10-performing ETFs over the first
half of the year, excluding the inverse ETFs, and it's obvious that commodities
rose to the top.
|
Top-10-Performing ETFs - 1H 2008 |
Ticker |
1-Mo |
3-Mo |
YTD |
|
United States Natural Gas |
UNG |
13.29 |
28.43 |
73.19 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Nat Gas ETN |
GAZ |
13.86 |
29.7 |
73.12 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Energy ETN |
JJE |
10.64 |
34.92 |
55.18 |
|
United States 12 Month Oil Fund |
USL |
11.59 |
44.14 |
55.02 |
|
PowerShares DB Energy Fund |
DBE |
10.64 |
39.54 |
54.64 |
|
PowerShares DB Oil Fund |
DBO |
12.4 |
41.39 |
52.67 |
|
ELEMENTS Rogers Energy ETN |
RJN |
10.07 |
38.4 |
50.98 |
|
iPath GS Crude Oil TR ETN |
OIL |
9.75 |
38.91 |
49.79 |
|
United States Oil |
USO |
9.91 |
39.33 |
49.47 |
|
DB Commodity Index |
DBC |
11.74 |
25.18 |
42.84 |
Source: Morningstar. Data as of 6/30/2008.
For comparison, the next table shows the 10 worst performers. Clearly, it was
not a good time to be invested in Financials, which, broadly defined, captured
six of the bottom 10 slots. India also had a rough first half, with the iPath
MSCI India Index falling 42%.
|
Bottom-10-Performing ETFs - 1H 2008 |
Ticker |
1-Mo |
3-Mo |
YTD |
|
Claymore/Clear Global Exchange |
EXB |
-14.23 |
-11.45 |
-30.55 |
|
PowerShares FTSE RAFI Financials |
PRFF |
-19.95 |
-20.23 |
-31.07 |
|
Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF |
TAO |
-15.90 |
-11.01 |
-31.16 |
|
iShares DJ Financial Services |
IYG |
-19.78 |
-19.79 |
-31.39 |
|
SPDR KBW Cap Markets |
KCE |
-13.15 |
-9.91 |
-32.60 |
|
PowerShares HY Div Achievers |
PEY |
-18.32 |
-25.96 |
-32.91 |
|
SPDR KBW Bank |
KBE |
-24.01 |
-26.47 |
-33.72 |
|
First Trust DJ STOXX 30 |
FDD |
-19.45 |
-25.72 |
-34.18 |
|
iShares DJ Broker Dealer |
IAI |
-16.32 |
-10.70 |
-34.80 |
|
iPath MSCI India Index |
INP |
-19.90 |
-20.16 |
-42.00 |
Source: Morningstar. Data as of 6/30/2008.
Asset Class Comparison
We can get a general feel for the performance of various asset classes by
examining the performance of the largest ETFs or ETNs in each major group. Here
again, commodities (and other alternatives) rise to the top. The leading
broad-based commodity product, the iPath DJ-AIG Commodity ETN, returned a sharp
27.09% so far this year, followed by gold (GLD, up 10.98%) and the euro (FXE, up
9.68%). Fixed income managed nearly flat returns, while all major stock
categories tumbled.
The spread between broad-based commodities and U.S. stocks in our study is
nearly 30%. In just six months! That's diversification at work.
|
Major ETF Asset Class YTD Performance Comparison Through
July 1, 2008 |
|
Category |
Fund |
Ticker |
1-Mo |
3-Mo |
YTD |
|
Commodities - Broad |
iPath DJ-AIG Commodity ETN |
DJP |
9.14 |
16.06 |
27.09 |
|
Commodities - Gold |
SPDR Gold Trust |
GLD |
4.98 |
-0.46 |
10.98 |
|
Currency |
Euro Currency Trust |
FXE |
1.48 |
0.48 |
9.68 |
|
Fixed Income |
iShares Lehman Aggregate |
AGG |
0.05 |
-1.08 |
1.24 |
|
Emerging Markets |
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets |
EEM |
-9.07 |
2.16 |
-9.5 |
|
Foreign Developed Markets |
iShares MSCI EAFE |
EFA |
-8.09 |
-2.27 |
-10.88 |
|
U.S. Stocks |
S&P 500 SPDR |
SPY |
-8.87 |
-3.21 |
-12.37 |
Source: Morningstar. Data as of 6/30/2008.
Of course, not all commodities performed equally well. According to
IndexUniverse.com, there were 33 commodity-focused ETFs and ETNs in existence on
January 1, 2008. Their performance since then is listed below.
|
Year-to-Date Performance Of All Commodity Funds Through
July 1, 2008 |
|
Name |
Ticker |
1 Mo |
3 Mo |
YTD |
|
United States Natural Gas |
UNG |
13.29 |
28.43 |
73.19 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Nat Gas ETN |
GAZ |
13.86 |
29.7 |
73.12 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Energy ETN |
JJE |
10.64 |
34.92 |
55.18 |
|
United States 12 Month Oil Fund |
USL |
11.59 |
44.14 |
55.02 |
|
PowerShares DB Energy Fund |
DBE |
10.64 |
39.54 |
54.64 |
|
PowerShares DB Oil Fund |
DBO |
12.4 |
41.39 |
52.67 |
|
ELEMENTS Rogers Energy ETN |
RJN |
10.07 |
38.4 |
50.98 |
|
iPath GS CrOil TR Idx ETN |
OIL |
9.75 |
38.91 |
49.79 |
|
United States Oil |
USO |
9.91 |
39.33 |
49.47 |
|
DB Commodity Index |
DBC |
11.74 |
25.18 |
42.84 |
|
GS Connect S&P Enhanced Commodity Total Return Str |
GSC |
9.31 |
28.99 |
41.52 |
|
iPath GSCI TotRet Idx ETN |
GSP |
9.24 |
28.73 |
41.37 |
|
iShares GSCI Commodity Id |
GSG |
8.42 |
28.2 |
40.61 |
|
ELEMENTS Rogers TR ETN |
RJI |
9.54 |
17.98 |
28.79 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Copper ETN |
JJC |
7.72 |
1.58 |
28.26 |
|
iPath DJ-AIG Commodity |
DJP |
9.14 |
16.06 |
27.09 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Grains ETN |
JJG |
17.1 |
18.54 |
25.96 |
|
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund |
DBA |
15.6 |
11.95 |
24.46 |
|
iShares Silver Trust |
SLV |
4.7 |
-2.02 |
19.28 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Agric ETN |
JJA |
14.92 |
14.9 |
19.27 |
|
PowerShares DB Silver Fund |
DBS |
5.55 |
0.88 |
15.43 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Metals ETN |
JJM |
4.76 |
-3.94 |
14.43 |
|
PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund |
DBB |
5.1 |
-1.66 |
13.32 |
|
ELEMENTS Rogers Metal ETN |
RJZ |
4.27 |
-4.72 |
12.43 |
|
ELEMENTS Rogers Agric ETN |
RJA |
12.22 |
8.51 |
11.6 |
|
SPDR Gold Trust |
GLD |
4.98 |
-0.46 |
10.98 |
|
iShares COMEX Gold Trust |
IAU |
4.34 |
0.98 |
10.71 |
|
PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund |
DBP |
5.34 |
0.68 |
10.46 |
|
PowerShares DB Gold Fund |
DGL |
5.32 |
0.5 |
9.18 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Livestock ETN |
COW |
-3.58 |
7.95 |
-8.51 |
|
iPath DJ AIG Nickel ETN |
JJN |
-0.38 |
-26.29 |
-16.93 |
|
Claymore/Clear Global Timber ETF |
CUT |
-13.23 |
-8.76 |
-19.83 |
Source: Morningstar. Data as of 6/30/2008.
There's a lot to take in on that chart, but it's worth highlighting a few
facts.
On the upside, the story is all energy, with natural gas leading the way. The
73% first-half return of the United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) is one of the
better six-month performances by an ETF ever, and reflects sharply rising
natural gas prices.
On the flip side, you can see that not all was well in the
commodities world: three products - the iPath DJ AIG Livestock ETN (COW), the
iPath DJ AIG Nickel ETN (JJN) and the Claymore/Clear Global Timber ETF (CUT) -
delivered negative returns for the period.
Each had its own particular reason. Livestock has been the laggard in the
commodities boom over the past few years, and it's had a tough start to this
year as well. Corn prices have soared so high that ranchers are slaughtering
their cattle and pigs early, creating an excess supply at the
slaughterhouses.
The nickel market, meanwhile, pulled back this year from what many believe
was a speculative bubble at the tail end of 2007, when nickel prices went up and
up, as a temporary shortage of metal worked its way through the system.
Finally, you have CUT, which is not a direct commodity product; rather, it
holds a variety of companies involved in various aspects of the timber market.
The criticism of CUT is that its link to timber prices is indirect at best, and
that it really performs more like a stock than like a commodity play. The fund's
first-half performance agrees with this assessment.
Broad-Based Commodity ETFs And ETNs
One final chart: We've mentioned time and again that the various broad-based
commodity indexes are not created the same. To prove that, I've pulled together
the YTD performance of the six major broad-based commodity ETFs and ETNs with at
least six months of performance data.
Notice the huge performance gap between the first four ETFs and the last two.
That's explained by the fact that the top four ETFs all have heavy weightings in
energy, which has performed very well in the first half of the year. The bottom
two ETFs - the ELEMENT Rogers (RJI) and DJ-AIG (DJP) - have more balanced
exposure, and have suffered from their relatively light weights on energy.
|
Name |
Ticker |
1 Mo |
3 Mo |
YTD |
|
DB Commodity Index |
DBC |
11.74 |
25.18 |
42.84 |
|
GS Connect S&P Enhanced Commodity Total Return |
GSC |
9.31 |
28.99 |
41.52 |
|
iPath GSCI Total Return Index ETN |
GSP |
9.24 |
28.73 |
41.37 |
|
iShares GSCI Commodity Index |
GSG |
8.42 |
28.20 |
40.61 |
|
ELEMENTS Rogers Total Return ETN |
RJI |
9.54 |
17.98 |
28.79 |
|
iPath DJ-AIG Commodity ETN |
DJP |
9.14 |
16.06 |
27.09 |
Source: Morningstar. Data as of 6/30/2008.