Nine Questions on Newspapers' 2Q Reports
So what do we make of the first half of 2008 in DailyLand? Bad and getting worse. I've listened to the CEO webcasts -- so you don't have to! -- and must say that there were a couple of eerie echoes of my own suggested remarks, offered a couple of weeks ago ("Candidly, Frankly, Truthfully, Newspaper CEOs Talk About 2Q). CEOs would be the first to acknowledge that the times offer more questions than answers. Here's my first Nine, off recent reports:
- Where are the unprofitable properties? In June, Dean Singleton told the World Association of Newspapers that 19 of the top 50 US dailies were unprofitable. We didn't hear a whisper of unprofitability in the comments. Of course, only the public companies reported, which leaves a number of the top 50 unpublicized. Think MediaNews, Advance, Copley, Hearst. We knew that the San Francisco Chronicle was first to make the list, losing a million or so a week for about five years now. Who are the other 18?
- Does McClatchy's announcement that it has almost reached the point that 50% of online revenues are online-only provide a new foundation of hope? Newspaper companies' reliance on the print/online upsell has been like heroin. Euphoric (25-35% on the way up) and paralyzing lethargy on the way down, as online growth has struggled to reach double digits at most companies, even as online ad spending continues to boom ahead at 18%+ growth rate. The smartest companies have profoundly shifted sales resources and sales training toward online-only, seeing their growth futures in the online ad economy. If McClatchy is a good way's along on licking its upsell habit, that may provide a good foundation for growth, especially as its participation in the Yahoo AMP network rolls out later this year. 2 more online revenue growth questions: a) Wouldn't it be great if each quarterly earnings report broke out online-only sales, by revenue in dollars and by percentage of overall online revenue? That would provide the market a new benchmark to gauge how much companies are building a future, not just cutting a past. b) What's going on with Lee's online growth number? Coming in at a negative 9.1%, it's a headscratcher. We know that newspaper companies each bring their own unique accounting to print/online revenue allocations, and that could be an issue here. Or could be the upsell addiction, though Lee has put a lot of energy into transforming its sales as well.
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