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How I Deal With A Market That Does Not Reward Trend Following
By: Joshua Hayes   Thursday, July 31, 2008 9:39 AM

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First of all, do NOT watch CNBC. This should be the last thing all of you newer investors should do. A lot of people that watch CNBC tell me that they do not have enough time to read Investors Business Daily and instead find it easier to listen to the raving madness of Cramer. This is baloney. All you need is 20 minutes a day to read ‘the big picture,’ ‘the investors corners,’ and any of the other investors education articles.

If you do this every day, I realize that it will not be fast, but eventually you will learn the right way to make money in the market. The same way the greatest traders ever, which were detailed year by year by John Boik in his fabulous books, traded is the same way you should invest. If the greatest all invested a certain way, shouldn’t you to?

Some of you believe that you can outsmart the market or you are lazy and believe that a method that has been PROVEN not to work (using P/E ratios to buy and sell stocks) will work especially for you. This idea must be dropped and you must learn that some very smart people have learned that the best time to invest is ONLY when the market is in a clear uptrend. A few of the greatest of all time know to be long certain stocks even in a bear market. For instance, the smart money managers are long biotech and medical stocks right now while they sell financials. This is clear to those that are experienced but for the newbies this can be very confusing.

That is why you must start learning now. Learn now what worked in the 1890’s and learn what worked in the 1990’s. What worked then will work now. You can not give up in a bear market. If you lose money now, stop trading. Pick up some of the books that I have recommended on my site and get reading. When you notice the market starts going up again with a lot of stocks participating (right now that is not happening–hence the new lows beating the new highs), that is the time to get long again. But when only a few rally with the index it is still time to exercise caution and learn up on how the greatest of all time traded/invested.

You will quickly learn that they did not buy stocks against the trend. There are very few charts that are moving up and even though I know how to find them thanks to Telechart does not mean that most people will be able to play along. 75% of stocks follow the trend of the market. So if the trend is shaky or down, why try going long. Instead read those books that I have posted on my website. This is the only way to learn about the future; you must learn from the past.

Besides that I do one of the greatest things that I think everyone on the internet who is a professional should do. I have posted 70% of my biggest winners since 1999 on this website. I have posted them for free so that you can see what they looked like when I went long and you can see what they looked like when I sold them at the top. You can learn so much from these examples that I do not think some of you are taking the time to study and memorize patterns that showed up in the bull markets that ranged from LMLP in 99 to HRZ in 06 to PDO in 08. These patterns do not show up and work for no reason at all. History constantly repeats itself and while it is very important to pay attention to fundamentals at all time, when you get chart setups like this, including stocks like TESO and AFSI in 2007, you can not pass on the supply/demand setup. These charts have been posted to show you what some of my best stocks have looked like before they go on to their biggest runs. One thing should be noticed, 90% of the time the market trend is up with the stock.

I hope a lot of you are studying these stocks but some of you do not know when to sell to take profits. I here of some of you taking all of your profits on a stock once it is up 10%. Well, I guess you missed DGLY and PDO, even though the gains in BRKR and BKE did evaporate, they never hurt us enough to make a significant impact. Eventually another bull market, even if it is a bear market or choppy market bounce, and will give us another max green BOP beauty. Don’t be a sucker and pass on it like so many did on APPY in 2007. Until 2007, I can only remember one stock that broke out of one of my beautiful patterns that failed immediately. This told me that all the failures in 2007 and 2008 were warning us of this bear market that we are now in. But do not for one second think the patterns that worked in 2003 will not work again. Only those that give up now will miss out on this. Trust me that will be too many. Too many do not realize that markets like this are made for a reason. To get rid of the weak. That always helps the strong make a lot of money when the market does lift higher under its own natural movement.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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