Bearish momentum from the previous afternoon's weakness caused the major
indices to move lower last Friday morning, but stocks found support and
stabilized after the first hour of trading. Preferring to be non-committal ahead
of the weekend, traders kept the main stock market indexes in a choppy, sideways
range throughout the rest of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
0.5%, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined 0.6%. Continued
relative strength in small-caps enabled the Russell 2000 to eke out a gain of
0.2%, benefiting our position in Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM). The S&P
Midcap 400 closed lower, but only by 0.2%. For the week, the main stock market
indexes all finished near the flat line.
The most positive aspect of last Friday's session is that the market's losses
occurred on lighter turnover. Total volume in the NYSE eased 10%, while volume
in the Nasdaq was 4% lower than the previous day's level. Despite choppy price
action last week, the stock market's volume patterns clearly remained bullish.
Last week, the S&P 500 only advanced in two of the five days, but both
sessions were "accumulation days" that showed institutional buying. Similarly,
all three days of losses were accompanied by lower volume. Higher volume on the
"up" days, and lower volume on the "down" days, is one sign of a market that is
healthy "under the hood." by advancing on higher volume.
One ETF that has showed bullish divergence to the broad market recently is
the Broadband HOLDR (BDH), which stealthily climbed 3.2% last week. BDH is
comprised of a basket of 17 stocks related to the computer and mobile networking
industry, although Qualcomm (QCOM) currently represents a weighting of more than
50%. Not only has BDH been showing relative strength, but the daily and
weekly charts are both positioned for breakouts. First, take a look at the daily
chart of BDH:
The dashed horizontal line on the chart above marks resistance of the prior
highs of BDH, just over the $14.50 level. Last Thursday, BDH tested that
resistance level, but pulled back slightly when the major indices sold off.
Nevertheless, the ETF held up pretty well against the broad market weakness, so
the slightest rally in the major indices this week should enable BDH to break
out above the horizontal price resistance level shown above. Next, check out its
longer-term weekly chart: