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Looks Like Bayh?
By: Steve Clemons   Tuesday, August 05, 2008 9:02 PM
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Rumors are flying that tomorrow in Indiana, Barack Obama is going to name Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) as his running mate.

Bayh denies it -- and says that he doesn't think anything special is being cooked up tomorrow.

This all could be a head fake -- or a couple of head fakes. I'm still holding out for some of the other options -- or I'd even be up for naming Birch Bayh, Evan's legislatively successful father. Dashcle, Biden, Tim Kaine would all be strong players.

But when I learned that ObamaBayh08.com is now directed to the Democratic Party website, this is pretty good circumstantial evidence that the Bayh fix is in -- whether the surprise gets popped tomorrow or not. Bil Bilerico first turned me on to the website acquisition by the DNC.

None of the other possible VP choices are getting this kind of internet red carpet. As one friend of mine told me, John Kerry's staff finally figured out he was going for John Edwards as his running mate when someone leaked that painters were stenciling Edwards name on to John Kerry's airplane just before the announcement.

Reading tea leaves can be promising but has its limits -- and still, these could be head fakes.

I can think of a lot of reasons why a Bayh choice is problematic. To some degree, it's the Dan Quayle play. Evan Bayh is not charismatic. He's hyper-controlled. When I've been with him in meetings or heard speeches by him, I don't get the sizzle that just emanates from his father who I have had some incredible encounters with over the last year. Birch Bayh is someone every American should know much more about. He's a true national hero for his work on gender rights, Title VI, and other legislative successes.

But on the other hand, what is really good about Bayh in Obama's eyes is that he's not charismatic. He's controlled. He's organized and blandly effective and won't grimace at attending funerals.

Seriously though, the biggest plus is that he would have been Hillary Clinton's choice -- and if Obama is not going to run with Hillary, then picking Bayh is the next best thing at offering an olive branch to the Clintonistas. Bayh is from a midwest state -- and may help with white working class Dems who are still skiddish about Obama.

Party unity is important, and picking Bayh will help move that ball forward. In addition, just picking someone, anyone, will give Obama a bit of a bounce.

But he's also bouncing a bit already. Today, he's up 4 points over McCain in the Gallup daily tracking poll after being tied neck and neck last week. In an AP/Ipsos poll, Obama is actually up 6 points.

And at the fun and invaluable Intrade, Obama's closing price was 59.8 while McCain closed at 37.



(2)
 
8/5/2008 10:34:06 PM
Finally... by DB
....a writer who is not taking this whole thing at face value. Just about all journalists following the VP possibility have bitten hard on the Bayh comments of today. Your article is the only one that recognizes a bigger picture, that this could be a "couple of head fakes." Almost the entire media has completely missed the boat on this. The #1 goal in rolling out a VP candidate is surprise. This campaign has demonstrated excellence in all areas. The VP rollout will be the same. Kaine was obviously a head fake. This is a masterpiece by the campaign to convince the media that (1) an event in a critical swing state (2) with its favorite son VP possibility (3) on the best possible day to roll out a running mate (McCain will have to wait till after Olympics), is just another town hall meeting in a wonderfully-symbolic hard-hit midwestern town that is representative of countless communities across Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, and Ohio. Nonsense. Read Bayh's words carefully and refer back to the fact that Edwards wasn't even with Kerry when he made his announcement (to keep secrecy). Also, Obama would be a fool to raise the hopes of Indiana natives only to leave them frustrated for several weeks. That's not how these guys operate. The VP announcement will go down tomorrow, either during the town hall, or at the mystery event Bayh says they have been trying to schedule. Obama has allowed plenty of time on their trip to Indiana this evening to formally ask Bayh and plan the next day. The media will be like a cornerback who bit on a sideline route just as the wide receiver went long. Good job.
Rating: (0) (0)
8/5/2008 10:34:06 PM
Finally... by DB
....a writer who is not taking this whole thing at face value. Just about all journalists following the VP possibility have bitten hard on the Bayh comments of today. Your article is the only one that recognizes a bigger picture, that this could be a "couple of head fakes." Almost the entire media has completely missed the boat on this. The #1 goal in rolling out a VP candidate is surprise. This campaign has demonstrated excellence in all areas. The VP rollout will be the same. Kaine was obviously a head fake. This is a masterpiece by the campaign to convince the media that (1) an event in a critical swing state (2) with its favorite son VP possibility (3) on the best possible day to roll out a running mate (McCain will have to wait till after Olympics), is just another town hall meeting in a wonderfully-symbolic hard-hit midwestern town that is representative of countless communities across Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, and Ohio. Nonsense. Read Bayh's words carefully and refer back to the fact that Edwards wasn't even with Kerry when he made his announcement (to keep secrecy). Also, Obama would be a fool to raise the hopes of Indiana natives only to leave them frustrated for several weeks. That's not how these guys operate. The VP announcement will go down tomorrow, either during the town hall, or at the mystery event Bayh says they have been trying to schedule. Obama has allowed plenty of time on their trip to Indiana this evening to formally ask Bayh and plan the next day. The media will be like a cornerback who bit on a sideline route just as the wide receiver went long. Good job.
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